Hello!
So of course as we can see, big surprise, BTC is not anti-correlated with the stockmarket and other assets, as many people would have hoped for.
Instead, BTC dumps when the stockmarket dumps, and pumps when the stockmarket pumps.
This is disappointing, but we kind of knew it of course already by comparing the BTCUSD price with the SP500 since 2010. There was always correlation on longer timeframes.
The current virus crisis is hammering down almost all asset classes. BTC is no exception, and the question is now: How deep will it fall?
Technically, down to MA200, BTC is still very bullish, and we get our new ATHs in 2021, it might only lead to a small delay in the ATH of a few weeks to a few months maximum.
I tried to draw these two scenarios. So either BTC sideways from here and then starts to climb (green), but a real possibility is the red curve that brings us again down to the weekly MA200.
Even a flashcrash below MA200 is possible, as long as the weekly closes at or above MA200. Should we go below the MA200 and stay there without a strong bounce reaction, then we could
see a longer BTC bearmarket, which would also shift the 100k ATH target to 2022. From a technical perspective, BTC remains longterm bullish as long as it stays above 1200. That should be doable,
hehe! The halving will ensure that the price will go up again, together with the other rising network metrics such as transactions and hash rate.
It's just of course annoying that this whole affair is dragging BTC down and postponing the ATH. We have to see now how much it will be postponed. But as longterm crypto investors, we should
be patient, else we cannot succeed in this market. There is no "get rich quick" in crypto.
So of course as we can see, big surprise, BTC is not anti-correlated with the stockmarket and other assets, as many people would have hoped for.
Instead, BTC dumps when the stockmarket dumps, and pumps when the stockmarket pumps.
This is disappointing, but we kind of knew it of course already by comparing the BTCUSD price with the SP500 since 2010. There was always correlation on longer timeframes.
The current virus crisis is hammering down almost all asset classes. BTC is no exception, and the question is now: How deep will it fall?
Technically, down to MA200, BTC is still very bullish, and we get our new ATHs in 2021, it might only lead to a small delay in the ATH of a few weeks to a few months maximum.
I tried to draw these two scenarios. So either BTC sideways from here and then starts to climb (green), but a real possibility is the red curve that brings us again down to the weekly MA200.
Even a flashcrash below MA200 is possible, as long as the weekly closes at or above MA200. Should we go below the MA200 and stay there without a strong bounce reaction, then we could
see a longer BTC bearmarket, which would also shift the 100k ATH target to 2022. From a technical perspective, BTC remains longterm bullish as long as it stays above 1200. That should be doable,
hehe! The halving will ensure that the price will go up again, together with the other rising network metrics such as transactions and hash rate.
It's just of course annoying that this whole affair is dragging BTC down and postponing the ATH. We have to see now how much it will be postponed. But as longterm crypto investors, we should
be patient, else we cannot succeed in this market. There is no "get rich quick" in crypto.
The weekly candle must close at or above the weekly MA200, this is important. If not, we're enterting a prolongued bearmarket.
If yes, we'll go sideways for a while until BTC starts rising after the halving.