Hello! So of course as we can see, big surprise, BTC is not anti-correlated with the stockmarket and other assets, as many people would have hoped for. Instead, BTC dumps when the stockmarket dumps, and pumps when the stockmarket pumps.
This is disappointing, but we kind of knew it of course already by comparing the BTCUSD price with the SP500 since 2010. There was always correlation on longer timeframes.
The current virus crisis is hammering down almost all asset classes. BTC is no exception, and the question is now: How deep will it fall?
Technically, down to MA200, BTC is still very bullish, and we get our new ATHs in 2021, it might only lead to a small delay in the ATH of a few weeks to a few months maximum. I tried to draw these two scenarios. So either BTC sideways from here and then starts to climb (green), but a real possibility is the red curve that brings us again down to the weekly MA200.
Even a flashcrash below MA200 is possible, as long as the weekly closes at or above MA200. Should we go below the MA200 and stay there without a strong bounce reaction, then we could see a longer BTC bearmarket, which would also shift the 100k ATH target to 2022. From a technical perspective, BTC remains longterm bullish as long as it stays above 1200. That should be doable, hehe! The halving will ensure that the price will go up again, together with the other rising network metrics such as transactions and hash rate.
It's just of course annoying that this whole affair is dragging BTC down and postponing the ATH. We have to see now how much it will be postponed. But as longterm crypto investors, we should be patient, else we cannot succeed in this market. There is no "get rich quick" in crypto.
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I apparently forgot to add the "BTC extremely overly unfriendly" option, which now came to pass due to the global sell-off among all asset classes.
The weekly candle must close at or above the weekly MA200, this is important. If not, we're enterting a prolongued bearmarket.
If yes, we'll go sideways for a while until BTC starts rising after the halving.
@alpdemalp, Yes, it seems that BTC is takin the unfriendly route, hehehe XD
Let's see how BTC will react at the MA200 around 5500. This should be highly interesting !
ReallyMe
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With all due respect, I dare to predict already today that the much-vaunted weekly MA 200 will not hold up this time.
Why? Well, elementary, my dear Watson. Looking at the long-term development of the Bitcoin to Gold ratio, it is not difficult to understand what will happen to the Bitcoin price in the coming weeks and months.
The excitement will be great when BTC breaks the weekly 200 MA support. It will shatter many dreams and there will be many tears. Sorry...
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, It seems more and more that you're right ReallyMe. If the weekly candle today won't close at or above the MA200, I will finally join your bearishness :) Then I agree that our goal will be around 1000 in 6-12 months time. This global recession is giving you your C wave scenario that you so deeply craved for, congrats !
ReallyMe
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Yeah, I guess you're right. That what it looked like to me and what I wrote about for a long time is now actually happening. So I guess I was right. Sad but true. FWIW, here I have published an updated idea with my thoughts on it to follow the further development in the next weeks. With best regards, take care & stay healthy!
Of course worlds most speculative asset is correlated to the rest of the economy and is by no means a safe haven during economic crisis. So we will see - it will depend on the situation. In previous cycles bitcoin retraced to The Mean so I bet we will test it again. But that was without economic crisis.
SebastianofMoon
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@gentlycaresser, Yes, exactly. Many wrongly assumed that BTC would be a safen haven, which it now impressively shows that it is not. It really depends on how bad the economic situation will now unfold to be. Will this be a 2 year stock bearmarket? In that case it would be very bad for BTC. Or will stocks recover already later this year when the Corona crisis might be resolved with vaccine and rising temperatures in summer? We shall see.