BTCUSD: Lulls The Herd To Sleep. Break Out Coming?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: After some unusual activity on Friday that almost lead to a break out, this market is still going no where. This is actually a good thing because the longer it lingers, the greater the short squeeze will be. With the well established higher low around the 6400 area, structure continues to point to strength.

It is amazing to see the herd mentality in action, not on the charts but on the feedback we get. The herd is either bearish , or losing interest. This is the type of environment where opportunity flourishes, not when price is pushing 10K.

As far as our swing trade, we remain long. It is just a matter of time before this market breaks out. We are holding for our short term targets, not forcing trades or flip flopping like many others.

In fact, the most recent close on the daily chart is presenting yet another potential long setup. As long as the bullish trend line holds, the bias is toward higher prices. I don't make this stuff up, it is what the market is showing.

In summary, the fact that activity is low and the crowd is losing interest is a great sign. Bitcoin consolidated for TWO years before it broke out and ran to the 20K area in 2017. The marketers, bloggers and "experts" were full of negative sentiment, to the point where they were writing that Bitcoin was a failure.

A weak market sells off fast, it does not linger. The longer this market consolidates, the greater the population of trades. One side is going to be wrong and it can be triggered by a positive or negative news event.

The structure leans toward the strong side, and that is what we follow. When the break out happens, it is going to be dramatic, and attract the reactive traders. And that is the time to sell, not into a consolidation that is establishing higher lows on multiple time frames.

Remember, a chart is a representation of order flow. Intent can be detected from price patterns and "what price is not doing" which carries more value than any oscillator can provide. Greed and fear ultimately drive prices in ANY market, and these forces have natural expressions. That is where a much more honest view of Bitcoin can be found. Focus on price.
Comment: BTCUSD update: We are looking for a close above 6830. If this market can accomplish such a close, then we anticipate a push into the low to mid 7Ks. This is what the market structure points to, not our feelings or opinions. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and by no means do we expect people to agree with our outlook. In fact the more that the herd disagrees, the better but the opinions are either to one extreme or the other. Do not get married to your opinions, they will empty your bank account especially on the shorter term.

When the day is over, it is the market that is right. We listen, evaluate and adjust. That's what market timers do. If this market starts showing clear signs of weakness, we will make the necessary adjustments to our positions. And in order for that to happen, we need to see a close below the 6400 area at least.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

It's these kind of wrong predictions that wipe out your credibility. In end of the day appears you guys don't know much more than me, while posing as big crypto whale traders, which leads to losses by listening to you. At best your advise can be taken with a grain of salt as an opinion-- \ maybe you noticed something I didn't on the charts.. but truth is can't make serious trades on your advice. I actually made money on this crypto dump yesterday by shorting BCH. The 1W chart candle (at least on cryptowatch) gets drawn on Wednesdays at midnight, London time. This aggressive move down happened within hour of new 1W candle opening.
+1 Reply
dRends35 cashonly
@cashonly, 1000 tiny bullish steps or 1 dump
@MarcPMarkets, $6.6k is "perfect time to accumulate", eh?
I told it was a sign of weakness, by no means "a good sign". Now, who was right?
You've seen that big drop by 5% tonight? were now @ $6.3k..... going further down
You recomennded "accumulating" @ $6.6k, do you still think so it is a good idea to "accumulate" because BTC has become even cheaper now? ;-)
This may be perfect time for BTC to break 6800 and test 7500+ zone.

Wake up people, he's in his comfortable bull channel.
+2 Reply
Thank you Marc. Although the current Triangle can potentially break-out both ways, the 1W Lower High sequence still indicates strong bearish bias and that the upside potential is limited. We are still looking at 6000:

+1 Reply
Thank you for hard work!

This is my BTC analysis for Oct 8. I discuss larger time frames | order blocks | potential price movements for next few months | 4h time frame short term move:
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