It is amazing to see the herd mentality in action, not on the charts but on the feedback we get. The herd is either , or losing interest. This is the type of environment where opportunity flourishes, not when price is pushing 10K.
As far as our swing trade, we remain long. It is just a matter of time before this market breaks out. We are holding for our short term targets, not forcing trades or flip flopping like many others.
In fact, the most recent close on the is presenting yet another potential long setup. As long as the holds, the bias is toward higher prices. I don't make this stuff up, it is what the market is showing.
In summary, the fact that activity is low and the crowd is losing interest is a great sign. Bitcoin consolidated for TWO years before it broke out and ran to the 20K area in 2017. The marketers, bloggers and "experts" were full of negative sentiment, to the point where they were writing that Bitcoin was a failure.
A weak market sells off fast, it does not linger. The longer this market consolidates, the greater the population of trades. One side is going to be wrong and it can be triggered by a positive or negative news event.
The structure leans toward the strong side, and that is what we follow. When the break out happens, it is going to be dramatic, and attract the reactive traders. And that is the time to sell, not into a consolidation that is establishing higher lows on multiple time frames.
Remember, a chart is a representation of order flow. Intent can be detected from price patterns and "what price is not doing" which carries more value than any oscillator can provide. Greed and fear ultimately drive prices in ANY market, and these forces have natural expressions. That is where a much more honest view of Bitcoin can be found. Focus on price.
When the day is over, it is the market that is right. We listen, evaluate and adjust. That's what market timers do. If this market starts showing clear signs of weakness, we will make the necessary adjustments to our positions. And in order for that to happen, we need to see a close below the 6400 area at least.
In my book, the longer the price "lingers" and remains below the downtrend line of the descending triangle the worse
because the greater are the chances that it will revisit and fall through the critical support zone $6k-$5.9k.
I become a buyer no earlier then when it makes a new high after having had broken $6.8k, no matter what the "experts" tell you.
Even then I expect $7.4k to be a very strong resistance.
You should be realistic and not driven by wishful thinking.
That's what I think.
I feel sorry for all the people who now scrape together their last remaining money to go long on the next (supposedly last) low.
The same experts who called $100k in December 2017 and $50k in February 2018 are still "top" traders and and still "analyzing" and "proving" with their pseudo TA that the break out & the next bull ride are imminent.