BTCUSD update: After some unusual activity on Friday that almost lead to a break out, this market is still going no where. This is actually a good thing because the longer it lingers, the greater the short squeeze will be. With the well established higher low around the 6400 area, structure continues to point to strength.
It is amazing to see the herd mentality in action, not on the charts but on the feedback we get. The herd is either bearish, or losing interest. This is the type of environment where opportunity flourishes, not when price is pushing 10K.
As far as our swing trade, we remain long. It is just a matter of time before this market breaks out. We are holding for our short term targets, not forcing trades or flip flopping like many others.
In fact, the most recent close on the daily chart is presenting yet another potential long setup. As long as the bullish trend line holds, the bias is toward higher prices. I don't make this stuff up, it is what the market is showing.
In summary, the fact that activity is low and the crowd is losing interest is a great sign. Bitcoin consolidated for TWO years before it broke out and ran to the 20K area in 2017. The marketers, bloggers and "experts" were full of negative sentiment, to the point where they were writing that Bitcoin was a failure.
A weak market sells off fast, it does not linger. The longer this market consolidates, the greater the population of trades. One side is going to be wrong and it can be triggered by a positive or negative news event.
The structure leans toward the strong side, and that is what we follow. When the break out happens, it is going to be dramatic, and attract the reactive traders. And that is the time to sell, not into a consolidation that is establishing higher lows on multiple time frames.
Remember, a chart is a representation of order flow. Intent can be detected from price patterns and "what price is not doing" which carries more value than any oscillator can provide. Greed and fear ultimately drive prices in ANY market, and these forces have natural expressions. That is where a much more honest view of Bitcoin can be found. Focus on price.
Comment
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BTCUSD update: We are looking for a close above 6830. If this market can accomplish such a close, then we anticipate a push into the low to mid 7Ks. This is what the market structure points to, not our feelings or opinions. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and by no means do we expect people to agree with our outlook. In fact the more that the herd disagrees, the better but the opinions are either to one extreme or the other. Do not get married to your opinions, they will empty your bank account especially on the shorter term.
When the day is over, it is the market that is right. We listen, evaluate and adjust. That's what market timers do. If this market starts showing clear signs of weakness, we will make the necessary adjustments to our positions. And in order for that to happen, we need to see a close below the 6400 area at least.
@jordanmorin13, hehe thank you for the generous compliment.
ReallyMe
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"the fact that activity is low and the crowd is losing interest is a great sign"
Seriously? I used to think that low activity and low demand were actually bad signs.
You never stop learning.
HorseyTim
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@ReallyMe, Really that's double edged. trend says we're going down. so I'm inclined to believe in lower lows
ReallyMe
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@hosweetim89, same here.
In my book, the longer the price "lingers" and remains below the downtrend line of the descending triangle the worse
because the greater are the chances that it will revisit and fall through the critical support zone 6k-5.9k.
I become a buyer no earlier then when it makes a new high after having had broken 6.8k, no matter what the "experts" tell you.
Even then I expect 7.4k to be a very strong resistance.
You should be realistic and not driven by wishful thinking.
That's what I think.
HorseyTim
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@ReallyMe, Definitely. In a bear market like this timing buy opportunities are really critical and far in between. And the "top" traders are usually those that post moon charts and inspire hope for easy money. I've figured that out the hard way.
ReallyMe
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@hosweetim89, at least you have learned your lesson and you will not make the same mistake twice.
I feel sorry for all the people who now scrape together their last remaining money to go long on the next (supposedly last) low.
The same experts who called 100k in December 2017 and 50k in February 2018 are still "top" traders and and still "analyzing" and "proving" with their pseudo TA that the break out & the next bull ride are imminent.
kardia
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@hosweetim89, And this shows your lack of experience in trading and understanding how markets work. Trends can last a long time, but they don't last forever. @ReallyMe has made a valid point with something of substance to back it up. Your point is it is going down, therefore, it will continue to go down. Thinking like that will lead to financial loss. It's important to identify the direction of the trend. However, wise traders think more in terms of supply and demand than trend.