Nice broad consolidation which generally leads to a continuation, but not always. Though I was using 50k as the lower boundary, reasonable to look at 45k as well, this is subjective, there is no right or wrong. I used 50k because of the prior to dips that held 50k and they have some importance.
What I do not like here is we broke 50k, which is not an end all, these levels are areas and night pinpoint precision numbers, so as of now I do not consider 50k taken out. Again this is subjective so spare me your opinion.
As I mentioned to our members yesterday, I do not like the fact we are NOT getting a bounce here, we are getting a consolidation in an area where we should not only see range traders stepping in, but buy the dippers as well. Not so sure that is happening, only time will tell, but it is looking a little weak from a price action perspective.
Short term consolidation at a support without a bounce is a continuation pattern. We also printed a lower high, and though this may be a failed low, probabilities now favor a swing lower. When I say probabilities favor a swing lower it is like 65%-35% or 60-40% not 90%.
The key level here is 46k IMO, and again one could argue 45k, and there is some merit to that as well, but 46k triggers a short and whether it is 46 or 45 is insignificant it is may result in a steep selloff quickly. Why steep and quickly?
Time is a variable during periods of consolidation. The more time an equity consolidates the more long or shorts are trapped in a trade. Reasonable for those in from lower prices to have trimmed or closed out positions, reasonable for those looking to get in to add on the dips.
You also have traders, those trading the ranges, those simply trading arbitrarily. Low of the range fair to see both dip and range buyers stepping in here, but there is more than 80 days of consolidation which implies there is likely a lot of longs that may get trapped.
Sellers: Investors in from lower levels and traders - Buyers: New buyers and traders. Sure there are some DCA investors as well, but probably not moving the market as much as impulse buyers.
So if short term traders get caught, stops are triggered, we start to see sentiment wane. Those that have been buying over the past 80+ days start blowing out positions to avoid as they get Buyers Remorse and we get a swift move into the low 40's high 30's, potentially into the mid to low 30's. That is where I am looking to add back inventory sold at higher levels.
So what about the Alt Coin market which is hot hot hot hot? Lets look at the leader Ethereum.
What a pain in the Butt but unfortunately it is what it is go to part 3-4 click on the chart below
I never invest based on others opinions but the way you understand market psychology is supraphysiological. I keep coming back for the entertainment.
Helena365
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Excellent!
WhiteBassFisher
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As usual, great analysis, and I really enjoy reading yours, thanks a lot!
Slybootie
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Greetings, Goldbug. I logged into TV for the first time in quite some time today, particularly for your sense of perspective about the alt crypto market meltdown (BTC/ETH volatility, your thoughts about the future of crypto as well). But, ironically, it seems your last post was around the time I last logged in. I hope the reason you stopped isn’t a consequence of any health related issues. Your contributions were always exceptionally well reasoned, articulate, and veritable. I learned a lot by attending to your analysis and insights. It really would be great to hear from you again. Respectfully, Tristan