Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Consensio: S EMA = M EMA > P > L EMA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E | Bear Channel | Rectangle
Horizontals:
Trendline:
Parabolic SAR: $4,166
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.68% spread
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0163%
BTCUSDSHORTS: At support and showing signs of breaking down
TD’ Sequential: Bullish price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Bullish
Relative Strength Index: Still > 50 = bullish
Average Directional Index: +DI > -DI with ADX > 25 = bullish
Price Action: 24h: -0.6% | 2w: +6.0% | 1m: +10.3%
Bollinger Bands: Price > MA = bullish
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily trying to recross. Just had montly & weekly buy signals which is extremely rare.
Summary: I was watching the ETH Constantinople Hard Fork very closely and thinking that if the market didn’t immediately sell off then a big rally would follow if. All of the technicals were looking very bullish and that was my final confirmation to start building big positions.
I am very surprised that neither happened and we continue to remain in this trading range. Now I am starting to notice some very weird / interesting dynamics. I remain long BTC & ETHBTC but I would not enter right now.
Look at the 50 & 200 D EMA’s on BTC, LTC and ETH. LTC already got the golden cross and the price is finding support will above the 50 EMA. It is continuing to rally while ETH is selling off in the USD and BTC pairs. This is something to keep a very close eye on.
I am very bearish on the fundamentals of the Constantinople Hard Fork. All that has been in the news is how it is bullish because supply is being reduced in the form of a decreasing miner rewards.
What is most important to me is how the market values Proof-of-Stake (POS) coins. There is not one inside the top ten and DASH is the only one inside the top 15. If that is how the market is valuing POS coins then I see no reason why ETH won’t eventually fall to that area, or even much worse.
The reason I say much worse is due to how much trouble miners are having staying profitable with these low prices. If we go for another leg down, which I expect to take BTC to $1,000 and ETH to $10 then imagine how hard it will be on ETH miners, especially after this reduction of block reward! It could be absolutely devastating and tells me that Vitalik is terribly mismanaging the project due to undervaluing the network of miners that got Ethereum to where it is today.
In my opinion the miners are the single most valuable commodity of a cryptocurrency after the initial code has been deployed. Without them there is no cryptocurrency. Satoshi built in a difficulty adjustment that will make it easier on miners to solve blocks during bear markets / decreased periods of interest.
This is exactly how it should be. When demand for Bitcoin increases then so does difficulty which ensures a sound stock to flow ratio. Conversely when prices and interest decrease so does difficulty which also ensures a sounds stock to flow ratio. This is a huge part of the genius behind Bitcoin and is the primary reason why it is the “hardest money that the world has ever known” according to Safedean Ammous. Unfortunately for ETH holders this is a concept that appears to have gone right over Vitalik’s head and it may prove to be far more detrimental than most can imagine.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: S EMA = M EMA > P > L EMA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E | Bear Channel | Rectangle
Horizontals:
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.68% spread
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0163%
BTCUSDSHORTS: At support and showing signs of breaking down
TD’ Sequential: Bullish price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Bullish
Relative Strength Index: Still > 50 = bullish
Average Directional Index: +DI > -DI with ADX > 25 = bullish
Price Action: 24h: -0.6% | 2w: +6.0% | 1m: +10.3%
Bollinger Bands: Price > MA = bullish
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily trying to recross. Just had montly & weekly buy signals which is extremely rare.
Summary: I was watching the ETH Constantinople Hard Fork very closely and thinking that if the market didn’t immediately sell off then a big rally would follow if. All of the technicals were looking very bullish and that was my final confirmation to start building big positions.
I am very surprised that neither happened and we continue to remain in this trading range. Now I am starting to notice some very weird / interesting dynamics. I remain long BTC & ETHBTC but I would not enter right now.
Look at the 50 & 200 D EMA’s on BTC, LTC and ETH. LTC already got the golden cross and the price is finding support will above the 50 EMA. It is continuing to rally while ETH is selling off in the USD and BTC pairs. This is something to keep a very close eye on.
I am very bearish on the fundamentals of the Constantinople Hard Fork. All that has been in the news is how it is bullish because supply is being reduced in the form of a decreasing miner rewards.
What is most important to me is how the market values Proof-of-Stake (POS) coins. There is not one inside the top ten and DASH is the only one inside the top 15. If that is how the market is valuing POS coins then I see no reason why ETH won’t eventually fall to that area, or even much worse.
The reason I say much worse is due to how much trouble miners are having staying profitable with these low prices. If we go for another leg down, which I expect to take BTC to $1,000 and ETH to $10 then imagine how hard it will be on ETH miners, especially after this reduction of block reward! It could be absolutely devastating and tells me that Vitalik is terribly mismanaging the project due to undervaluing the network of miners that got Ethereum to where it is today.
In my opinion the miners are the single most valuable commodity of a cryptocurrency after the initial code has been deployed. Without them there is no cryptocurrency. Satoshi built in a difficulty adjustment that will make it easier on miners to solve blocks during bear markets / decreased periods of interest.
This is exactly how it should be. When demand for Bitcoin increases then so does difficulty which ensures a sound stock to flow ratio. Conversely when prices and interest decrease so does difficulty which also ensures a sounds stock to flow ratio. This is a huge part of the genius behind Bitcoin and is the primary reason why it is the “hardest money that the world has ever known” according to Safedean Ammous. Unfortunately for ETH holders this is a concept that appears to have gone right over Vitalik’s head and it may prove to be far more detrimental than most can imagine.
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