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Consensio: S EMA = M EMA > P > L EMA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E | Bear Channel | Rectangle Horizontals: Trendline: Parabolic SAR: $4,166 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.68% spread Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0163% BTCUSDSHORTS: At support and showing signs of breaking down TD’ Sequential: Bullish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Bullish Relative Strength Index: Still > 50 = bullish Average Directional Index: +DI > -DI with ADX > 25 = bullish Price Action: 24h: -0.6% | 2w: +6.0% | 1m: +10.3% Bollinger Bands: Price > MA = bullish Stochastic Oscillator: Daily trying to recross. Just had montly & weekly buy signals which is extremely rare.
Summary: I was watching the ETH Constantinople Hard Fork very closely and thinking that if the market didn’t immediately sell off then a big rally would follow if. All of the technicals were looking very bullish and that was my final confirmation to start building big positions.
I am very surprised that neither happened and we continue to remain in this trading range. Now I am starting to notice some very weird / interesting dynamics. I remain long BTC & ETHBTC but I would not enter right now.
Look at the 50 & 200 D EMA’s on BTC, LTC and ETH. LTC already got the golden cross and the price is finding support will above the 50 EMA. It is continuing to rally while ETH is selling off in the USD and BTC pairs. This is something to keep a very close eye on.
I am very bearish on the fundamentals of the Constantinople Hard Fork. All that has been in the news is how it is bullish because supply is being reduced in the form of a decreasing miner rewards.
What is most important to me is how the market values Proof-of-Stake (POS) coins. There is not one inside the top ten and DASH is the only one inside the top 15. If that is how the market is valuing POS coins then I see no reason why ETH won’t eventually fall to that area, or even much worse.
The reason I say much worse is due to how much trouble miners are having staying profitable with these low prices. If we go for another leg down, which I expect to take BTC to $1,000 and ETH to $10 then imagine how hard it will be on ETH miners, especially after this reduction of block reward! It could be absolutely devastating and tells me that Vitalik is terribly mismanaging the project due to undervaluing the network of miners that got Ethereum to where it is today.
In my opinion the miners are the single most valuable commodity of a cryptocurrency after the initial code has been deployed. Without them there is no cryptocurrency. Satoshi built in a difficulty adjustment that will make it easier on miners to solve blocks during bear markets / decreased periods of interest.
This is exactly how it should be. When demand for Bitcoin increases then so does difficulty which ensures a sound stock to flow ratio. Conversely when prices and interest decrease so does difficulty which also ensures a sounds stock to flow ratio. This is a huge part of the genius behind Bitcoin and is the primary reason why it is the “hardest money that the world has ever known” according to Safedean Ammous. Unfortunately for ETH holders this is a concept that appears to have gone right over Vitalik’s head and it may prove to be far more detrimental than most can imagine.
@MustStopMurad has some Bearish Charts as well. You say $800 and He's calling $1,800 BTC by Late April / Early May 2019. SIDENOTE: I started watching Bitcoin when it was $236 around 5/15/15.
Sawcruhteez
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@ImTheCryptoKid, I am aware, Must Stop Murad and I have placed a friendly bet on where the bottom will be.
moviestar
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PoS is much more sustainable and future proof when it comes to saving the environment. currently (and for the forseeable future) mining coins creates way too much additional pressure on the environment the planet is able to handle (together with emissions from power generation, traffic etc).
unless we can somehow magically get to mining being CO2 neutral mining simply has to be got rid of altogether. mining/proof of work is a huge flaw in this aspect most people fail to realize.
Sawcruhteez
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@moviestar, Fully disagree. POS is way too centralized and gives far too much control to the large holders. It would be way too easy for them vote on printing new coins, blacklisting / confiscating wallets, rolling back the chain, forking or anything else a long those lines. These are the problems that proof of work solves and having sound money is well worth the energy that is expended.
Here are a couple quotes from Saifedean Ammous:
“Most people view energy as finite, it isn't.”
“Amount of energy from sun & wind is way greater than we need"
“Bitcoin allows energy to be sold, creating liquid free market for electricity"
Creating a liquid free market for electricity is a massive benefit and it is already helping us to value energy more properly. There will always be way more than enough energy available to support Bitcoin. There are people working on creating miners that exclusively use solar and / or wind power as we speak. Setting up a wind turbine or solar power farm to mine BTC will have no negative effect on the environment outside the nominal energy expended on creating the miners. The more energy that Bitcoin uses the more these types of adaptations will be made.
Innameyard
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The prophet is never, will never be honored inna his own yard. Bust down Sodom & Gomorrah.
OBR
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Lightning is equally damaging to BTC. Moving transactions off chain, lowering miner profitability.
If you highly value miners in the network, you would want them to have a highly lucrative, highly competitive fee market. That can't happen with lightning because the fees for opening a channel will eventually become prohibitive for everyday users. Full, juicy, terabyte size blocks, processed by a few nodes in serverfarms, as intended by Satoshi (bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306 will be the only way Crypto will work long term. Massive transaction volume with low fees per transaction on BSV. Works for users and miners.
Either that or it all comes crumbling down and we short it to zero, don't care either way.