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Yesterday's sudden reversal to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) strong rise early in the day, just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was far from ideal as it closed the daily candle in red. That brings to memory the last time that happened and was the last signal before a massive sell-off.
That was on May 04 2022. As you see the price was again rejected just before hitting the 1D MA50, only a few days after it marginally broke above it (April 21) but again failed, just like on September 13. Following the May 04 rejection, the resulting sell-off initially dropped by -36% and by June 18 it completed a -63% fall from the March 28 Top. Such huge decreases have not been uncommon throughout this Bear Cycle (which has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern) and especially since the November 10 All Time High, whose subsequent drop was around -52%.
I have replicated the January 22 - June 18 price action (blue) and pasted it on the post June 18 sequence. That fractal that hints to a -61% drop at around $10000. If it follows the Megaphone's first drop of -52%, then it would result to around $12000. Whatever happens, that is indeed a scary fractal, in fact the scariest projection that can be made on BTC right now. It may or may not happen. What matters is to be prepared for both and apply a strategy that utilizes the appropriate risk management.
But what's your view on this fractal? Do you think it is realistic? What are your targets for Bitcoin on a 1-2 month horizon? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
you're bearish for first time in history. shit. I'm closing my shorts
Mihai_Iacob
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I was very bearish btc, now i got the feeling it will not drop to 10k zone, at least without a visit to 30k first. Although at this moment i m short, i m looking to close and reverse, may be around 16500-17k zone.
vitsha
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Who wants to sell BTC under 20 000 ? I didn't want to sell over 60 000 and sold very little than. I started to buy at 32 000 and still buying. Or you believe that BTC is just another Ponzi scheme?
arbitgiri
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nothing scary, just expected behavior in a downtrend.
OTWhale
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BTC will reach $12,000 soon.
kamil92
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TradingShot is bearish? I was waiting for this moment the whole bear market. Long!
Skyrex
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Thanks for sharing! Your target is too low. 16k will be the bottom in my opinion. But local dump is probable
DrStein
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LOL! TradingShot posts a bearish chart! So what happened to all those bullish nonsense that you were feeding your followers?
Ether2020
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@DrStein, that is indeed very true, my dear friend!. Also, he never responds to another opinion, I noticed. Bottoms are formed after confirmation, not after trying to catch a falling knife. Pretty useless to respond anyway on this kind of idea and author in my opinion.
rogm86
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very creepy fractal, but each leg down is going to similar to the previous leg down. Pattern will repeat until until btc is just too cheap. I'm sure at these prices people are itching to buy, but are nervous over market conditions. Any more cheaper market uncertainty wont be able to contain that itch.