No big revelations, just an interesting observation.
What can we know from the RSI?
The RSI is a momentum indicator. Looking at the daily RSI and price during the last market cycle (#3), it looks like there was a consistently strong up trend through-out the bull market and although there were corrections, this did not "stall the engine" . This time there seems to be clear 2 larger cycles; with larger pull-backs, instead of many small ones.
Looking at the RSI on the weekly chart (see below in updates), it is clear "the balloon was kept in the air" throughout the last bull market; never going below 54; this is not the case this time.
My assumption is: as the cryptocurrency market matures, people are more confident thus the larger and longer upswings. People also need to take profit especially those who have been in for many years already; this explains the corrections of course.
Prediction: there will be 1 more larger local cycle before the next bear market.
Can we try to predict the next bottom? I'm just a noob, but I think it should be around 20k somewhen in 2022. It feels like there is a one year bear market after the ATH and it's above the previous ATH.
fifty2kph
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@ramirodlp, just for fun, I predict the next bottom to be 30k and yeah, usually there is about a year bear market. We shall see. Thanks for your thoughts.
ramirodlp
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@fifty2kph, thank you for your answer, I was checking some of your past analysis and it's very impressing. You really think in the next year the bottom will be 30k? I'm waiting for a lower price. Somewhere between 20 and 30k.
fifty2kph
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@ramirodlp, thank you very much. If I was looking to buy BTC, I would not wait. This is not advice. This is what I would do based on my knowledge and experience and the fact that I would buy and hold until the end of this cycle. Everyone should make decisions based on their own knowledge and understanding. Peace.
sgomezleal
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good analysis! perspective now?
fifty2kph
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@sgomezleal, consolidation and accumulation phase now I think. What do you reckon?
sgomezleal
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@fifty2kph, great! yes I also think so, just hope that accumulation doesn't take so much time, maybe 1 month only, then I hope Bitcoin would go to 100k, maybe another dip and then higher