In this analysis I'm going to take an attempt at making an educated guesss at when Bitcoin will top, purely based on price action.
On the chart you can see Bitcoin's price action over the last 13 years on the 2-week chart. The arrows are drawn from the first candle close above the previous all-time high (purple lines).
In short, it takes between 17 - 24 bars (34 - 48 weeks) before Bitcoin reaches it's cycle top, 20 bars on average. Seeing that we're currently at the first candle close above the last ATH, we can extrapolate previous data and reach the conclusion that Bitcoin will top in December 2024.
When do you think that Bitcoin will top? Share your thoughts!
WHEN (and potentially at what value) does everyone else think the top will be and why?
Best answers over the next few days get 100 coins
FinWealth
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@TradingView, FinWealth thinks the Top has already done in BTC near 73k, thanks to recent massive inflows into BTC spot ETFs. Due to 'inflationary' fears and 'high rates for longer' reality, BTC can retrace to near 55k.
FieryTrading
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@TradingView, Thanks for the coins! Want to share my analysis from back in November. Price and date forecast.
SpartaBTC
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@FieryTrading, I agree with you. Similarly, I think the highs of this cycle will be in 2025. I published this trade idea almost 1 year ago.
Archer357
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I don’t see any of these discussions factor in the usual halving pump which will most likely only add more fomo and increase price purely based on scarcity
FieryTrading
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@Archer357, This is the halving pump. Historically we've always dumped before or after the halving, I'm more worried about the halving dump tbh.
altsandislands
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@TradingView, I think due to historic price action and market psychology we will see a market blow off top in Q2 of 2026 goin into summer. But I don't think it will ever go down to prices seen last year. The widespread adoption and ETF inflows and a larger BTC market cap will lead to less volatility.
CBKWahoo
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@TradingView, August 13th 2024 85k just one of chart ideas out of a few
Killrnstinx
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@TradingView I don’t believe the halving will have the same impact as it has in the past. It’s already virtually impossible to mine bitcoin on your own. So the impact will only be from the new cost to mine once it halves and not from the exclusion of lone miners (or smaller mining operations) like in the last 2 cycles. Once the price has been stretched beyond a new ath and the top forms, btc then is vulnerable to even the slightest negative news, or even opinion. All it will take is someone of influence to just speculate on some negative impact of bitcoins presence and it’s down she goes. Last cycle it was elon questioning the detrimental environmental impact of bitcoin mining and the whole thing unraveled. The higher the price goes, the more fragile it becomes.
It is an interesting thought experiment.
WHEN (and potentially at what value) does everyone else think the top will be and why?
Best answers over the next few days get 100 coins