Not good to defy 1.618 prj, 0.618 rtrc & 200D MA all at once (2)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
... and with a TD 8 Daily still. It's really not a good idea.

*(2) : this release with a fix, removing an external link. Beware of the rules, PT.. ;).
So, If you are seeing this again, pls , have my apologies.
Still, if you would be kind to leave your like again, I'd be much grateful. Tyvm!

Hi there fellow traders! Hope this post finds you well and safe after this last slash down.

In this moment I believe it can be useful to bring a daily chart to you, so to help make things clearer, and show where we stand in a more broader sense. Let's see...

So far, the move up has been consistent, and, as I've shared with those following my charts more closely, this has been pretty much like textbook stuff:

  • Wave 1: 1238 usd move (from 6.5-7.7k);
  • Wave 2: -805 usd; (to 0.618 retrc. of wave 1, to 6.9k)
  • Wave 3: 2260 usd (to somewhat above 1.618 ext. of wave 1, to 9.16k)
    (if so considering:
    wave 3 intermediary 1: 1532 usd move (to 1.272 ext of wave 1, from wave 2 bottom).;
    wave 3 intermediary 2.: -766 usd move (to 0.5 retrc. of minor bottom (6850;) or 0.382 from major bottom (6427)
    wave 3 intermediary 3: 1488 usd move (to somewhat above 1.618 ext. of wave 1, from wave 2 bottom).

It's clear that letting price move past 1.618 fib. projection level in one swoop (without a swing) was not in Bear's minds, and this move above it was designed to bring in liquidity, so some whales could unload more comfortably. This, of course, just in my humble opinion.

Still, I was happy to be able to see, based on Phi proportions, that price would probably find a hard time moving past 9160, as per some messages I sent before, and also tweets, just after last small breakout which took us there.

Now, let's see what's next..

An interesting hypothesis can be the conclusion of this major movement up, still as per textbook:

  • Wave 4: Retrace down to ~8.1 - 7.9k levels ( about 0.382 to 0.5 retrc. levels, from wave 3 bottom)
  • Wave 5: Extend up to about 10.1 - 10.5k levels ( 100% of wave 3, from wave 4 bottom, to be defined)

Another one could be that this is already wave 5, and thus, we would start a 3 legs move down (a-b-c).
In that case, we could go lower. In fact, we always can, of course.

So, what do you PHInk? ;) Run up from here, now?
A swing before a new attempt to break 200D MA?
Or "this is it". Now it's tanking time for BTCUSD?

Please let me know your thoughts and/or questions in the comments.

Tyvm for you attention! And, please, let me know if you liked this idea.

Finally, as always: trade wisely, lose little and stay in the game.


Jan 25
Comment: Some cavalry arriving...

Take care!
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