Flag, pennant or wha'everrr.. this thing is pressure cooking to boil north!
No guarantees. This is based on experience of these positions.
Whilst the probability looks favourable for the north, note carefully that there is a residual probability for the south.
WARNING: New and unskilled traders are advised to avoid this instrument. No guarantees supplied. Your losses are your own.
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For me the market has only one primary objective - to give traders a sense of logic or reasoning, and then destroy their accounts by breaking all so-called rules and analyses (including my own). I'm researching a phenomenon which I have coined 'market hypnosis'. 😄
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People are asking me questions like "Are you saying BTC price is going, is up?" I don't understand why this is being asked.
I actually said "Whilst the probability looks favourable for the north, note carefully that there is a residual probability for the south." In the comments section I said "The above means I also expect price to fall from where it is (to a 49% probability)."
Some people are gonna get burned with this one. How? By not taking an acceptable loss (aka affordable stop loss - on a lower time frame. Please note my disclaimers.
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Are you still ready - to lose money?!!! Tough - if you're never ready to lose money you cannot make money in this business. Just to be clear your losses are your own.
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There was blood on the streets as panic set in over Litecoin flash crash and some issue with BTC's hashrate. Naturally very silly people dumped 'the coin'. There was 'blood on the streets'.
That's great. I went long on ETH which suffered too, but was a cheaper bet.
A descending triangle is a bearish pattern is it not
@london55555
Captain_Walker
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@dRends35,
Triangles, flags and pennants - from my experience and knowledge need to be interpreted in the context of the most recent impulse and trend - but also in context of higher time frame trends.
The previous massive triangle (at left) was bearish because two of three trend indicators said probability was greater for the south.
The most recent triangle (at the right) is in the context of a 3D trend breakout for north. Three of three indicators are giving probabilities for the north. In that context the triangle (flag or pennant) is bullish - and represents consolidation.
I must over-emphasise:
1. I don't do predictions.
2. For every probability estimate in one direction there is a residual probability in the opposite direction (e.g. if I estimate 51% north that means 49 times out of a hundred price will go the other way).
3. Markets do not obey patterns, formations, retracements, or Elliott waves.
4. I'm not suggesting anyone trade this 3D time frame (the position shows a potential continuation of the trend north after consolidation).
The above means I also expect price to fall from where it is (to a 49% probability).
My formula is simple (but not easy):
1. Take an acceptable loss - and write it off (aka stop-loss) i.e. I expect to lose.
2. If price moves north follow it (on a lower time frame) - alias trend following. (I'm not involved in trend continuation trades).
The above is not advice - even if so construed. It is opinion only.
Disclaimer: No guarantees. No liabilities accepted.
dRends35
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@Captain_Walker, Thanks for that. I actually think on larger timeframes Bitcoin is forming fairly simple patterns and so is conforming to simple manual trading methods. To have this descending triangle after such a volatile move looks still like a B wave to me with pressure building for a reversal to the downside and dominant trend to resume. But let's see.
Captain_Walker
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@dRends35, Good stuff. I expect to get it wrong - but limit how wrong I am. I don't wait and see - but it's fine for others to do that. I just play probabilities as I estimate them. Your alternative perspective is much appreciated. In trading it's good to look at things from different angles. 👍
dRends35
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@Captain_Walker, Just to add that if this was the start of the next bull cycle, the initial motive wave would likely be much weaker than what we have seen, but rather we have seen a very volatile move which seems to be in tandem with the enormous impulse to ATH - hence B wave.
Felix000
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I don't see a bitcoin collapse this time around. You see the spikes NOV 2018 and SEPT 2019 in DXY (dollar index) RSI 200. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Captain_Walker
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@Felix000, Interestingly - 'everybody' knows that the trend is supposed to be their friend, but then loadsah ppl ignore the trend. Like - why?
The biggest challenges especially in an area of consolidation are:
1. Firstly recognising consolidation.
2. Then determining using the tools, whether the trend is breading down (i.e. weakening - or just getting ready to move north). How many times have traders bailed out of a trade and then the market moves in their favoured direction? Many! Then you're like kicking yourself. 🙉
3. The next big challenge in all trading is determining an acceptable loss (aka stop-loss).
After your best estimates - which some people call 'predictions' - the market will make you feel silly. I don't do predictions.
Markets are there to make fools of us all. A stop-loss - money that can be cheerfully burned - is absolutely essential to limiting how stupid the markets make us out to be. It's that simple really - but it ain't easy! 😨👴
Felix000
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Cool. The more humble you are the more you know@Captain_Walker,
Thegentelman
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U wish 🙃
Captain_Walker
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@Thegentelman, Apols.. the Cap'n does not wish, or predict - only estimates probabilities based on hard evidence visible to everybody (right there on the chart). 😄😁
I remind myself that I said "Whilst the probability looks favourable for the north, note carefully that there is a residual probability for the south." This means if you go north on this, you stand to lose your money - same as in any trade at all.
I make no recommendations to go north or to trade in securities. I simply show the how I assessed the probability. I'm open to other reasoned and different perspectives.
@london55555