Notice how price broke down from the median channel support shortly after it broke out of the 2.618 fib circle ring, which resulted in the break of market structure and a 50% capitulation in both 2014 and in 2018, where recently price dropped to our next at $3200. As you can see bitcoin found support at the same support at the end of Jan 2019 before we had the current bull trap rally.
Imo we still have 1 more capitulation to go where we will eventually find the bottom channel support.
In 2014, we had a 77% drop from the $680 high, which we reached before breaking market structure, to the 2015 swing low. Then shortly after breaking out of the 4.236 outer fib ring, we had our final bottoming descent.
In 2018, a 77% drop from the $8500 high, which we reached before breaking market structure, gives us a bottom of around $2-$2.5k, which lines up nicely with our bottom channel support. We have also just broken out of the 4.236 outer fib ring, so I'm expecting our final bottoming descent to begin soon.
Once we have bottomed, I expect sideways consolidation until we break out from the larger 2.618 fib ring circle, where we should enter the next phase of the next bull cycle which will coincide with the 2020 bitcoin halving around May. Expecting a parabolic move to our $50k resistance once we break out of the larger outer 4.236 fib ring around July 2022.
Good luck and happy trading!