Emanance
Long

When Good Trend Lines turn Bad!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Well at least it's still pointing upwards! I have been thinking about how to display this data since we breached the 'current' longterm trend line (in indigo) back on the 11th of August 2014, and came up with this chart. Seems Bitcoin's USD price history is one of major trend line destruction. Good news for bulls I guess is in 5 out of the 6 times we crossed these major trend lines , we weren’t too far from a new major leg up in pricing. Bears just can’t resist those cheap coins for very long. Looking backwards to look forwards, I’m thinking the closest similar breech to this last one, is the green line.

I'll try and update some other more in depth observations, particularly on the spacing between breaches, a little bit later on.

Credit to munkeefonix for his excellent time corrected historic Mt Gox data:
BTC Prehistoric v1
.

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ChartArt
2 years ago
"Well at least it's still pointing upwards" That is what I'm thinking. We are on very thin ice.

I used the oldest Gann fan trend lines in my chart here. One of them is from November 2011 when the Bitcoin price made a trend change at $2.25. I hope we can turn around again and start a new uptrend around $450.

Rough trading water - Bitcoin choppiness until October?



My older version of your chart shows that we are already outside the channel if drawn like here:

One Secret Chart Of Bitcoin Bulls



If we don't go up again, I already have doomsday charts for that here in the comments:
The real reason Bitcoin is doomed in Summer 2014
+1 Reply
ninjabenja PRO
2 years ago
This is a great chart and an excellent observation. Well done.
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Emanance ninjabenja
2 years ago
Thanks :)
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HerSerenity
2 years ago
What is the reasoning behind the placement of the purple line, besides indicating once again another "soonish" upswing? Why wouldn't you place it like, say, that?
snapshot
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HerSerenity HerSerenity
2 years ago
snapshot
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Emanance HerSerenity
2 years ago
When I posted the chart price was just a few days out from the $442 low on the 17th of August. So I was treating the $442 as the first touch of a yet to be confirmed supporting trendline. However you will notice the accompanying updated image, that price has pushed slightly under this initial draft of the support line, hence it will have to redrafted, & await a confirmation. That said, I've noticed after scrutinising the prior 6 failed trendlines that this is not an unusual occurrence. So in answering your question, the reason I placed the purple line at the position I placed it was based on the available information at the time.

snapshot


On the zoomed out updated chart I've both measured the time periods in days that it took to realise the maximum percentage price declined after a trendline failure. And on the Green & Red trendlines also measured the time in days elapsed before a new trendline established itself.

snapshot
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MrJonMak
2 years ago
Haha this chart looks like "spectral lines" from a Science project. Looks like we are nearing the end of the consolidation phase, could take a couple of more months before we begin another run hopefully.
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