This is the BTC parabolic wave from the perspective of Fibonacci fans, which chart lines of support and resistance between lows and highs and vice versa.
I'm starting the fans on 11 December 2020, the beginning of the upside move that would lead to breaking the previous ATH, and setting the high on 62.
We can see a few things here:
1) Upside momentum is slowing. We clearly experience this in trading. The February correction took significantly longer than January. The whole wave is slowing.
2) It's interesting to see how the wave appears to broadly respect the Fibonacci fan levels, and how this latest correction broke below the 0 line, which will now act as resistance.
3) The chart does appear to suggest that mid-70s may be as far as we get, before there is a correction and break down potentially below the 0.25 level.
4) The EMAs spread is clearly narrowing with each leg upwards, which also explains the waning momentum, and puts a dampener on projections of a meteoric ascent from here beyond 100k.
5) The corrections are coming closer together. I think we should see the correction we've just experienced as separate from that of 21 February, even though the latter straddled into March.
6) From this chart, I could see BTC penetrating the 0 line in one last push, perhaps to 74. But I think that may be it. The blow-off top would come as we then pass back under the 0 line and are testing support lines, rather than resistance lines, down into the bear market.
@Durbtrade, It's completely fascinating, while also frustrating. You get the impression that throughout the chart there are millions of hidden lines, and only the smallest deviation is what is actually in play. Maybe a small deviation leads to the appearance of a breakout, or its opposite, and not necessarily immediately, but somewhere down the path as confluences build. It's as though the entire movement was almost mapped in advance, and that at some level there is structured harmony, amid energy flows and entropy. When we set aside algorithmic bots and think of actual humans trading in its market, it's even more incredible that there is so much regularity, and that patterns of any kind form. It's dizzying and uncanny. Somewhere in there, likely, are truths that go far beyond bitcoin, markets, economics. But I couldn't even guess what they are, or what I'm really looking at.
Durbtrade
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@ianrdouglas, interesting points. On one of my main charts, I tend to keep old trendlines if they have a chance of interacting with candles further down the road. It can make the chart messy, but it's amazing to see price action ride or bounce off of a trendline placed weeks or months beforehand. And I've been thinking of it like we are charting water... where is it likely to go? We see waves, but it is also a billion individual drops of water. Ah, the mysteries of life. Thanks for your reply!
ianrdouglas
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@Durbtrade, I'm the same way. I wish there was some auto function in TradingView to extend all past trend lines automatically. I've got to become more systematic in logging chart analysis (folders, naming, etc). I know advanced traders tend to remove everything. Candlesticks alone, oftentimes. And I understand that. But for novices like me, complexity is information, and I need to drink as much of it as possible, having passed that first stage where it is entirely overwhelming. And I agree: the waves are obvious, regardless the timeframe. But composition within that, and the small currents and eddies, that sometimes combine, and sometimes cancel each other out. It's remarkable. I wish an interface existed — or even an art installation — that really could justice to this complexity visually. I'd watch it for days. I could get lost in there. It's like Zen.
Durbtrade
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@ianrdouglas, btc seems to have bounced off of your -0.382 fib line... seems to have done the same on my pitchfan idea. Interesting revisit... thanks!
Durbtrade
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@ianrdouglas, looks like it's stuck below that -0.75 fib line
ianrdouglas
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@Durbtrade, On the log scale, yes. But take it off log, and it seems the 0.75 is acting as support. It's not entirely clear which is more valid, linear or logarithmic, for this particular tool
Durbtrade
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@ianrdouglas, wow you're right. hmmm. i should be taking advantage of that exact ability to switch charts to/from log more often. i have been inverting my own charts more lately... sometimes it really changes/confirms perspective.
ianrdouglas
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@Durbtrade, Unfortunately, sometimes, log and linear can offer very different results. There's an interesting thread of responses on this issue here, consulting some top traders and chartists: allstarcharts.com/trendlines-logarithmic-scale-charts/ In general, log is good for longer term charts, and linear for immediate or lower timeframes. Best always to flip and cross check between them, when it comes to making assessments and decisions.
ianrdouglas
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@Durbtrade, Even off log, BTC seems currently below the 0.75, so much that that matters