The bigger picture for me is that we will see a bigger correction in BTC . We might see some manipulation towards the fork but in general I believe that the bullrun is over or almost completed.
Reason to think that is because we've seen a 5 legs upcycle which already reached minimum target at 6200 and is currently extending towards fib 1.618 around $8200,-
This cycle is mature and can start correcting from anywhere now but a retest of last ATH and even a run up to test that fib level is still possible.
For now, I'm seeing an correction forming from last ATH towards the blue trendline. This would perfectly fit in the 5 legs I draw on the left chart forming the B leg.
For now, I think this smaller 5 legs cycle will not extend above last ATH . If it does, we will have to evaluate that move and possible further moves down. But this towards 6800 seems most logical to me. At that area it will we deciced if price corrects more towards 5000. I believe this will happen.
I think we see some selling pressure coming days, followed by some moves around fork and after fork (IF fork happens) the correction of the bigger 5 legs up towards $ 5000,-
Stophunting will dip the price just below 5k
Tradingadvise: already for days, I advise members of my groups to avoid trading at these areas. Try to lock in profits as high as possible and wait for a decent correction to buy back lower and enjoy the next BTC bullrun.
Disclaimer: this is just a possible scenario which I see as most logical, taking into account my TA system and some fundamentals. I'm not predicting prices, I'm expecting. I'm not trading the move down, I'll look for a nice level to buy back. That might be 6500-5800-4800 or whatever..... Depends on the situation and possible events, manipulation in coming 8-10 days.
Coming hours will tell us if this was the dip or we might see some more downside.
We might see a retest of blue trendline, from there it will be decision time if we make another move down like this chart:
target determined with Fibo extensions
My feeling still says a drop, lets see
Aside from that, Bitcoin is long overdue for a correction.
That's said - no offences here, in fact i was also bearish and thought of ABC correction to smth like 5k but once it passed 7k it's clear to me that the correction has ended. In fact, BTC made a big correction because it went from ~7900 to ~5400 which is ~31% drop.
Anyway, I do like all your analyse so keep up the good work.