thehoplite

Short & support @6800. 2+ weeks wait.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
My drawings are largely based on a detrended analysis and decomposing the T + C for a better understanding of their parts. To list the few tools:
1) RSI
2) DPO
3)Fib
4)Modified MACD
5)Regression
6) Bollinger
So, a lot of textbook stuff in there. Looking at very near-term cycles, I drew the vertical lines to correspond with those troughs. This part was accomplished by detrending the data and isolating the micro cycles to estimate their length in days (~20). when doing so, I also use Bollinger and wedge to signal a conservative trend reversal in the near term, while relating that movement to past cycles just to see if we were still corresponding well between those proposed cycle lengths. This also done to review what the historical cycles suggest we ought to expect and just to see if there's a match on patterns that would otherwise form the ' between' parts of those cycles. I note a likely bounce off the dotted support line, but I would also imply some interaction with the Fib retracement, which seems to hold up well when mirroring the support trend. The regression line also fits in there pretty appropriately, as it also begins the trend where the first cycle start point is drawn, illustrated by the orange vertical line. Regression was also helpful in gauging the depth of the lows from the regression's median, which shows a diminished deviation from the trend's average. It appeared that when using the fib chart to measure those distances from trend's average to the dotted support-trend, there was a neat fit. EAch of those distances were placed to the fib in succession to how they occur (black lines). This comfirms to me how appropriately the regression to support trend distance diminishes and in a fairly predictable fashion if placed back to the fib retracement. So, that confirmation was obviously used in determining the next low's distance. from the prevailing regression.
The MACD is also used here to illustrate the number of cross-over signals that fall between each cycle length. You may notice that the MACD is completely modified to react faster to turns in btc price. I think this is also appropriate when I'm using a smaller range of history to capture the DPO movements.
This is what allowed me to sync the MACD signaling with those time frames I'm now referencing.
Strength and momentum tools, as mentioned previously, were use to resolve that there is still plenty of room for the bears to pick up without being in oversold territory.
I tried to be as thorough as possible with this analysis. It may have some flaws against the common practices, but I don't believe we are dealing with a very "common" asset. With that, I would presume that it's anyone's game to pioneer what best practices should be considered.
To sum it all up:
The entire month is slated for a drop test at 6800. I would put stops at 7300 for those wanting re-entry. Time frame we're looking at is probably no less than 18 days from now, so I would just be patient. Be careful around the fib retracement interaction. Could linger around that area for some time and otherwise create a false sense of support. Give it a bit more time, and listen out for the news.
The alternative to the bearish short trend in the cycle is looking like a rally, depending on how we come through the wedge . 10,000 USD is my psych barrier and the technical barrier. Beyond that, I think that would provide us with enough strength on the back-end for a breakthrough. As a reminder, this could also take some time. Look to 9300-9400 as the first barrier to cross if you do vote that direction. I would just be careful because the news can always make some noise in the markets longer than the rest of us can make sense of it. Looks like overall MSM in the US have been ramping it up lately.
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