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Bitcoin Bullish Until Daily .618 Fib Retracement

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
On the hourly logarithmic Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, I have created a new standard pitchfork from the pivot low on August 13th to the swing high on August 21st and the swing low the next day on the 22nd. Price has stayed pretty tightly in the lower half of the pitchfork alternating between the the blue and green channel.

Price has not yet successfully broken the red median line and if this bullish rally should continue we will most likely see price battle again with the median line where it currently sits around $7,250 and rising. There are quite a few bullish indicators on the longer time frames, but it appears over the next few hours price needs to head lower to consolidate some more.

Price is currently sitting in the blue channel and I believe that a further dip down to the edge of the pitchfork and the yellow-line appears possible. There is also a black horizontal support line at around $6,875 that could also provide as a downside target.

Momentum continues upward however, and price may bounce around the top of the blue channel for a while before deciding to pullback more. There was some good volume on the downdraft around 11am EST, but volume has slowed down and price has already headed steadily higher on lower volume and the volume is now bullishly picking back up as well.

The RSI action is in an uptrend over the last few days. The red candle downward from earlier today was inevitable with the bearish divergence from price’s higher highs and the RSI's lower highs and marked with the lime green lines. The RSI dipped slightly back into a bearish zone at 39, but has since recovered and sitting now fairly neutral at 51.

The MACD is EMA lines are steadily trending downwards toward the zero bound, but the blue trigger line is curling upward already with the histogram ticking upward giving some bullish signs similar to that on Sunday August 26th and both circled in red.

There may be another ascending triangle forming here, which would likely break upward if the blue lines continued to hold. I put a green target of at least $7,300 up there in the upper right corner until we can see how things unfold.


On the daily logarithmic Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, you have a better view of the pitchfork discussed on the hourly chart and see this red long-term downtrend line repelling price from a few weeks ago.

I have drawn a inverse Fibonacci retracement from the highs back on July 24th all the way down to the low on August 14th and you can how far price has retraced. On the last two bearish trends over the past few months, the price has retraced back to at least the .618 level before heading lower. Under that assumption on this trend, we would have a target at that greenish line .618 line at $7,497.

I think the $7,185 green line at the .5 retracement level also could put up some far resistance and this steady grind higher might last for a few more weeks. Many people have been trained for expectation for dips at this point and I think profit taking is going to become more prevalent on any price rises for the bulls. The buying support has been solid so far, but it’s important to take these things one day at a time.

The volume has been steadily increasing bullishly the past few days, but today's may not provide the same. Today’s candle is currently putting up a bearish spinning top , so we will have to see what the next few hours hold.

The RSI is currently sitting neutral at 58 and just below the bullish zone and it certainly appears there is some additional upside coming, but it may next a few days. The last time RSI was at this RSI resistance at 60, price was around $6,750.

The MACD EMA lines have bullishly crossed over and are heading higher, but there is a gap forming indicating the possibility of a temporary pullback especially if one of those histogram bars begins to tick lower. On the other hand, that blue trigger line is about to cross the zero bound and should give price a boost. I think remain bullish until price can signal otherwise.

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Comments

Good Stuff..... I agree with your indicators and your projections.

Thanks
Reply
raddnav RobertBizzarro
@RobertBizzarro, Thanks Robert, appreciate it. We'll see what happens.
Reply
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