norok
Short

BTCUSD Here's the short

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Timing is coming to fruition this week. We are back at the Daily Resistance level of 672. Holding here I'll play it down first to the Daily support of 611. Taking a short off this level going into the statistically bearish day of Wednesday is the play. The break or hold of 672 is going to be key. Should it break the resistance the "clockwork" Friday bullish day comes into play for bullish .

Don't feel right?
If one has some fundamental, ideological, astrological, or otherwise vested view that it's wrong to short Bitcoin you can always short Litecoin as a hedge. Bearish plays on Litecoin always have exaggerated moves. I'll repeat what I've said for years; my long term target on Litecoin is $0.00. I don't post about LTCUSD             because few people care enough to read thus emphasizing my point.

Disclaimer
The statistics I am referencing are just that; statistics. That means that for every fact that falls under 100% means there is the remainder within probabilities that the opposite will occur. Still, knowing the highest probability statistics combined with technical analysis and risk management equals a robust trading plan. That being said; I'm going into the rest of the week with this research in mind.
Hi Norok, thanks for the analysis - always well written and insightful. Im new to this and was curious as to why 611 was the daily support opposed to 635?

I've been focusing on the large Pennant formation signalling a break-out between friday and sunday (as you've mentioned - bullish friday). the pennant indicates support around 635 and resistance around 675 - any tips in this regard would be appreciated, if you had a spare moment or two..
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norok PRO Darumbal
On my Daily chart there you can see where that 611 level comes from; it is the long, flat yellow line. This Ichimoku line is the Senkou B which is the 52 period 50% retracement from the high and low, shifted forward 26 bars. In addition to being the flat yellow on the Daily it is also the 9 period Tenkan Sen on the Weekly. So there at 611 you have two 50% retracements from multiple timeframes aligning. That creates a strong, high probability support level.

I have studied and are aware of price patterns but I do not use them. Here's why; they are subjective. When drawing them, do you use highs/lows, closing prices? What happens when it briefly breaks your drawn lines but comes back within; do you redraw them? What is the probability that a given pattern will behave a certain way; a probability that I could base a risk/reward strategy upon?

For me in trading I need to define my risk and know my expected success. That means I need to base my plan on things that I can quantitatively test. I feel like people that draw price patterns are more concerned with being "right" and "predicting the future" to have things to talk about than actually trading for consistent profits and managing risk.

The reason I use Ichimoku is because the levels the indicator creates are static, defined, and universal to price action across any instrument be they stocks, futures, or cryptocurrencies. Over time I've also learned the patterns within Ichimoku which are more clear and less open to interpretation.
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Thanks for the response.

I certainly agree with your views and reasons why people draw price patterns and the reliability of them. I've stuck with it as its helped me to predict when a breakout might occur - the direction of that movement hasnt been consistent and have since been looking at alternate ways to improve my risk management. I've looked into Ichimoku previously and have been using it mainly for tk crossover to predict momentum for entry/exit points. I'll do some more research to get a better understanding of its patterns and uses. Thank you again for your comments, they'll certainly assist me on my journey and trading strategy.
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One final question - If the daily resistance of 672 is broken; how do you pick a target to close your long? Is this based on reviewing candles, RSI, MACD, or is there a better way?
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norok PRO Darumbal
Good question; there are two problems with RSI and MACD.

First, how do they help you put in a Limit Order to get out? They will never be able to give you a real number for the price to exit. You are stuck watching the chart for them to develop and then manually exiting a position with a market order. The best trading is done when you are away from the screen enjoying life with the confidence your plan is already in motion.

Second, the question itself opens more questions. What timeframe are you going to apply these indicators to make a decision? They will give you different readings on the Weekly, Daily, and swing trading timeframes. Then your decisions again become arbitrary. That is why i simplify my targets with the Ichimoku lines and pivot highs/lows.

My opinion on them is that they are useful tools with predictive potential but they do not help my trading style for the reasons I gave above. Most analysts throw as many indicators as they can on a chart in an attempt to devise a crystal ball; a confluence of indicator events that will give them that single 100% success lottery ticket win. I don't care about that. In fact, I'll take a plan that is 40% correct (more wrong than right) and make money as long as I make sure to profit multiples more than I lose each trade. Thus, I am most concerned with the right place to put my orders and targets so that I can accurately calculate risk and reward.

The next target past 672 would be the last high at 705, followed by the bottom of the small range at the top at 747. Those come into play only if the resistance is broken. Until then the forecast can change. Timing will also matter. I'll update my forecast and post it publicly as things develop.
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You're a good man, thanks for your help.

I look forward to your next forecast.
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