Hi followers, traders, investors.
It gonna be a pretty long, hopefully helpful, analysis.
The Descending Triangle has broken. It worked as it should be because it is considered as a bearish chart pattern. The support got cracked with a very powerful candle, which is also logical because the lower orange support area has previously worked as resistance and several times as a support level. If the price starts to approach it again, then we know that it certainly starts to play a very important role in the long-term perspective. In this analysis, I would like to point out some mid-term and even long-term scenarios, some stronger technical price levels from where the price is capable to make some gains, drops or even some pretty impressive bull runs.
First of all, I would like to point out an area which is the strongest support (in my opinion). Not just a support but possibly it can produce a mid-term reversal. I have made some mid-term technical analysis and sooner or later the price has reached to my pointed out areas. Hopefully, this analysis is not an exception. The "price pocket" stays inside the marked green area, the range is pretty wide - $6,800-$8,000.
To get started, let's count those criteria:
1) The orange horizontal line has worked multiple times as a support and as a resistance level - $7,410. It started to act as a resistance in November of 2017, this is the time when the price reaches the first time to this area. As said, several rejections, it has printed monthly highs and in this year, as you can see from the left side of the major image, it has worked as a small supporter. So, this area already itself is capable to produce something but obviously, that's not all.
2) Three Fibonacci Extension levels. 2x 127% and 162%. Those are drawn from different waves from the top of the price action (2019 top). All Fibo Ex. levels stay between $7,500-$8,000, even though they are pulled from different waves.
3) 3x AB=CD. Again, pulled from different waves, which stays above the 9k but those three D points are inside the green area to make it stronger and stronger after every criterion.
D1 ~ $8,100
D2 ~ $7,900
D3 ~ $7,500
4) The Fibonacci Golden Ratio 62%. Historically, the Bitcoin price has reacted to this Golden Ratio extremely accurately especially, long-term Fibonacci levels. Now, we have also long term Fibonacci retracement level, which is historically worked perfectly, inside the green area. Fibo is pulled from 2018 low to 2019 high and 62% is at $7,230
5) Weekly EMA100 ~$6,900
6) Inside the green area are two middle number/round numbers $7,000 and $8,000. I cannot count those as a criterion because the area is pretty wide but still, nice to know ;)
7) Now, the major criterion. The criterion which can lead us also to the bull run but we'll talk about that a little later. The massive channel projection. The Descending Triangle upper trendline, copy/paste and we will get a parallel channel. The "line" is pretty wide and a bit subjective but our goal is mid-, long-term so it doesn't have to be super perfect. It adds a massive amount of strength to the marked area/ to the "price-pocket" and it just has to work as a strong support level ;)
8!!! Wait for a bullish candlestick pattern inside the marked area. As said, the area is wide, the selling pressure is high (FOMO), the drop has been sharp - all those minuses refer to a candlestick pattern, which has to occur on Daily or on Weekly timeframe! We cannot simply start to the action if the price reaches to the pocket. Actually, a long-term investor can buy it from the pocket as the price reaches inside the marked area. Remember, only then you can buy when your bias is set to long-term because it just is a sweet spot to add something to your long-term portfolio - partially.
Daily and Weekly candlestick patterns: Hammer, Engulfing, Railway Tracks, Morning Star. Forget those Haramis, Inside Bars blabla...jadajadajada sorry but bs.
Okay, those were the criteria which makes this are strong. As said, sooner or later the price has reached to my pointed areas, so watch out for that ;) There is also the time window, it has to occur within two-three weeks. I'm a bit "worried" that the price may go to make a retest the Descending Triangle support which now becomes resistance ($9k) and if the time window breaks then the price may go easily lower than 6,8k. Basically, if it doesn't reach inside the green area within three weeks and if the price doesn't make a breakout from the Bull Flag then 4-6k is easily doable. What?? Bull Flag??
Bull Flag
Firstly, I have to say that if the price gets a rejection from the green area and if it reaches to the 9k (black box, the most important crossing area) then we may get a textbook sell opportunity (definitely, I'll talk about it a bit deeper in the next analysis if it occurs) BUT if it makes a breakout upwards (cracks the super-strong trendline, cracks the mentioned super-strong area 9k) then the bull run may begin because since 2019 high the price has started to fall lower and slowly it has started to form a bullish chart pattern Bull Flag...
...which gets confirmed AFTER THE CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE THE UPPER TRENDLINE. At the moment, this is just a formation, nothing confirmed and as said we may get a perfect short-term sell opportunity around the 9k but for to-the-moon guys, it would be a perfect setup to the moon :)
Only then, I change my mid-, long-term bearish bias when it has made a breakout above the upper trendline, which is currently the counter trendline - bigger trend, since 2018 low, is upwards and the current smaller trend since 2019 high is downwards. My older followers should know how good are those trades where the counter trendlines get cracked.
At the moment, my eyes are pointed to the green area, I'll wait for a bullish candlestick pattern from Daily or from Weekly timeframes. If the price doesn't reach inside the green area then I'll wait for a fat orange horizontal line to become resistance and I will search for some short opportunities from there.
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
It gonna be a pretty long, hopefully helpful, analysis.
The Descending Triangle has broken. It worked as it should be because it is considered as a bearish chart pattern. The support got cracked with a very powerful candle, which is also logical because the lower orange support area has previously worked as resistance and several times as a support level. If the price starts to approach it again, then we know that it certainly starts to play a very important role in the long-term perspective. In this analysis, I would like to point out some mid-term and even long-term scenarios, some stronger technical price levels from where the price is capable to make some gains, drops or even some pretty impressive bull runs.
First of all, I would like to point out an area which is the strongest support (in my opinion). Not just a support but possibly it can produce a mid-term reversal. I have made some mid-term technical analysis and sooner or later the price has reached to my pointed out areas. Hopefully, this analysis is not an exception. The "price pocket" stays inside the marked green area, the range is pretty wide - $6,800-$8,000.
To get started, let's count those criteria:
1) The orange horizontal line has worked multiple times as a support and as a resistance level - $7,410. It started to act as a resistance in November of 2017, this is the time when the price reaches the first time to this area. As said, several rejections, it has printed monthly highs and in this year, as you can see from the left side of the major image, it has worked as a small supporter. So, this area already itself is capable to produce something but obviously, that's not all.
2) Three Fibonacci Extension levels. 2x 127% and 162%. Those are drawn from different waves from the top of the price action (2019 top). All Fibo Ex. levels stay between $7,500-$8,000, even though they are pulled from different waves.
3) 3x AB=CD. Again, pulled from different waves, which stays above the 9k but those three D points are inside the green area to make it stronger and stronger after every criterion.
D1 ~ $8,100
D2 ~ $7,900
D3 ~ $7,500
4) The Fibonacci Golden Ratio 62%. Historically, the Bitcoin price has reacted to this Golden Ratio extremely accurately especially, long-term Fibonacci levels. Now, we have also long term Fibonacci retracement level, which is historically worked perfectly, inside the green area. Fibo is pulled from 2018 low to 2019 high and 62% is at $7,230
5) Weekly EMA100 ~$6,900
6) Inside the green area are two middle number/round numbers $7,000 and $8,000. I cannot count those as a criterion because the area is pretty wide but still, nice to know ;)
7) Now, the major criterion. The criterion which can lead us also to the bull run but we'll talk about that a little later. The massive channel projection. The Descending Triangle upper trendline, copy/paste and we will get a parallel channel. The "line" is pretty wide and a bit subjective but our goal is mid-, long-term so it doesn't have to be super perfect. It adds a massive amount of strength to the marked area/ to the "price-pocket" and it just has to work as a strong support level ;)
8!!! Wait for a bullish candlestick pattern inside the marked area. As said, the area is wide, the selling pressure is high (FOMO), the drop has been sharp - all those minuses refer to a candlestick pattern, which has to occur on Daily or on Weekly timeframe! We cannot simply start to the action if the price reaches to the pocket. Actually, a long-term investor can buy it from the pocket as the price reaches inside the marked area. Remember, only then you can buy when your bias is set to long-term because it just is a sweet spot to add something to your long-term portfolio - partially.
Daily and Weekly candlestick patterns: Hammer, Engulfing, Railway Tracks, Morning Star. Forget those Haramis, Inside Bars blabla...jadajadajada sorry but bs.
Okay, those were the criteria which makes this are strong. As said, sooner or later the price has reached to my pointed areas, so watch out for that ;) There is also the time window, it has to occur within two-three weeks. I'm a bit "worried" that the price may go to make a retest the Descending Triangle support which now becomes resistance ($9k) and if the time window breaks then the price may go easily lower than 6,8k. Basically, if it doesn't reach inside the green area within three weeks and if the price doesn't make a breakout from the Bull Flag then 4-6k is easily doable. What?? Bull Flag??
Bull Flag
Firstly, I have to say that if the price gets a rejection from the green area and if it reaches to the 9k (black box, the most important crossing area) then we may get a textbook sell opportunity (definitely, I'll talk about it a bit deeper in the next analysis if it occurs) BUT if it makes a breakout upwards (cracks the super-strong trendline, cracks the mentioned super-strong area 9k) then the bull run may begin because since 2019 high the price has started to fall lower and slowly it has started to form a bullish chart pattern Bull Flag...
Only then, I change my mid-, long-term bearish bias when it has made a breakout above the upper trendline, which is currently the counter trendline - bigger trend, since 2018 low, is upwards and the current smaller trend since 2019 high is downwards. My older followers should know how good are those trades where the counter trendlines get cracked.
At the moment, my eyes are pointed to the green area, I'll wait for a bullish candlestick pattern from Daily or from Weekly timeframes. If the price doesn't reach inside the green area then I'll wait for a fat orange horizontal line to become resistance and I will search for some short opportunities from there.
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
