Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and I do not have training sufficient to give financial advice. For me, this is a hobby.
Chart says it all. Comments welcomed. Similar to my LTCUSDT analysis. Note: LTC Wave C likely reached bottom at $47 and lowest close of ~$50, yielding WA = WC = ~$200.
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For clarification the dotted vertical line indicates day chart was published. The new cycle begins after bottom of Wave C.
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Starting point of BTCUSD chart chosen where a previous cycle ended, and chart designed more with aesthetics in mind. Here is a snapshot of a more accurate wave count depiction that is less aesthetically pleasing.
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Received some messages about readability of chart and a potential 24 June $5755 bottom. Updated chart once more and created a new chart reflecting the potential June bottom.
Updated Original
24 June Bottom Scenario
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Before anyone comments about (iv) being lower than (i) - They were randomly placed, but more importantly, it is common for (iv) to drop below (i) in lower degree waves.
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[u]Truncated Fifths:The Black Swan[/u] Weekly and Daily charts of most likely scenario based on current analysis. Bull Market truncation of Wave 5 followed by Bear Market truncation of Wave C's lesser-degree Wave (v). Insights follow charts. Comments welcomed.
[u]Weekly View[/u]
[u]Daily View[/u]
Indicators and Ramifications Expect an uptick in price by the end of 22 Oct weekly candle but potentially by the close of today's daily candle. Possibly, this event already occurred.
Next, price will trade sideways for a seemingly long time with growing negative sentiment. BTC and altcoin price cycles might remain synchronized through Depression, but by Disbelief their cycles will be visibly contrasted. By Disbelief, negative sentiment of the continued Bear market will dominate. Hope will unexpectedly strike and, in hindsight, the start of the next market cycle will be obvious.
Recommendations I am not a financial adviser, but as a hobbyist I plan to stay Long on my position. I'll consider shorting some of my position at Hope but remain with the majority of it.
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I published analysis of BTCUSD and Truncated Fifths: The Black Swan in separate idea linked below . Any derivative assessments will be added there.
Not always, especially with an extended Wave 3, i.e., a length greater than 1.618 of Wave 1 length.
Though, there is an argument to be had about Wave C’s v being lower than its iii. In many cases like BTC has played out, Wave C has 5 impulse waves and bottoms at the 3rd not 5th, i.e., iii not v. This would result in Wave C being closer to a more atypical 50% of Wave A instead of the more common 61.8%. Again, I’m a hobbyist so it’s worth getting an experienced trader’s opinion.
Though, there is an argument to be had about Wave C’s v being lower than its iii. In many cases like BTC has played out, Wave C has 5 impulse waves and bottoms at the 3rd not 5th, i.e., iii not v. This would result in Wave C being closer to a more atypical 50% of Wave A instead of the more common 61.8%. Again, I’m a hobbyist so it’s worth getting an experienced trader’s opinion.