Everyone knows that Bitcoin patterns tend to repeat themselves on each Cycle. Well this pattern is no exception and don't tell me you didn't expect that at some point the 2014/2015 cycle (illustrated with the yellow candles) wouldn't converge with the 2018/2019 (current) cycle.
I first shared this idea with you in May:
Even though I expected the current convergence to follow the pattern duration of the previous two (took roughly +50% of time), I have to admit the accuracy and above of the usefulness of the pattern is pretty remarkable.
*What happens next?* The real question is how that model helps us move forward. What I can harness from the pattern is this. During the Bear Cycle, the current sequence (2018/2019) underperformed relative to the previous one (2014/2015), but when the bottom was made and the new convergence took place the tables turned with the 2018/2019 cycle overperforming. Does this mean that it will continue that way? It is possible but on the short term I see nothing but consolidation (2-3 weeks), even the medium term shows no aggressive divergence (at least before the May 2020 Halving). I will make an analysis on this potential medium term consolidation soon but even on the long term the theory of cycle lengthening suggests that it can follow the same pattern (I will also make a study on this model soon).
A common factor on all convergence events is that each consolidation period lasted around 4 weeks before the cycles diverged again. This constant is particularly remarkable to me and should be considered by short term traders.
The Buy Zone of the 1W MA150 and MA200 though is standing right there so long term investors know what they should do!
So do you think Bitcoin will move, after the consolidation, below or above the previous cycle? Let me know in the comments section!
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