Here is a continuation of the on-going analysis on this BTCUSD / #bitstamp cryptocurrency - See prior analysis right here: "BitStamp Tending To 260 Forecast: -
As you may know now, that forecast held on the ground of the "OffSet Rule" of the Geo, where the idea was to determine whether price would rise any further than the current Point-4 of the larger geometry.
As per the Geo's Off-Set Rule, Point-4 was regarded as the high-probability level of attainment, since the rule #2 suggests that:
- If price reverses from Point-5-prime (5'), then price will seek to reverse to the price level corresponding to Point-4 (the smaller geometry in the current chart, as its highest probability attainment.
For a frame-by-frame review of this concept, simply follow this link, which should guide you directly to the discussion and review of that forecast:
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Following is the current chart, at time of this writing:
Following is the social media share and last note on prior thread - This thread has been move to this current page, so as to keep the conversation and analysis clear into a new month:
02 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn: ---------- BTCUSD / #bitstamp DAILY chart offers a bird's eye view of the bearish probability:
From Twitter/LinedIn:
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BTCUSD #bitstamp continues its decline from 5'' to 257.39 as forecast; Predictive Model still bearish:
#bitcoin
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David Alcindor
kurta007
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wow ,great hit again .David, what is y view now?
4xForecaster
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ADDENDUM - Following is the frame-by-frame replay of the prior forecast, which called for a rally up to the level of Point-4 based on the Geo's "OffSet Rule":
Source and historical narration at this link:
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David Alcindor
manipuflated
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Would you say a 50-50 shot of either 279.13 or 240.50 at the current spot?
4xForecaster
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@manipuflated - There is n 50-50 shot here. At about the time when price had defined Point-3 (in BLUE) of the larger system, the Predictive/Foreacsting Model suggested a HIGH probability of 259.91 getting hit, but a LOW probability that this would occur at 279.13.
This HIGH;LOW remains in effect. In terms of exact numbers, I do not believe there is a ratio I would be able to arrive at without making it up.
In terms of trading (for a short-term, SHORT position), I would recommend the following:
1 - STOP-LOSS at Point-4 (in BLUE) + Spread + a few points above (to avid getting hit at the ASK)
2 - WARNING at the CLOSE of the candle that validated Point-4 (in BLUE)
3 - HIGH-Prop Target (IF price did decline, of course) = Fibonacci Cluster from:
- - 3-4 Leg downward extension (here, look for 1.414 to1.618 range)
and
- - 1-2 Leg downward extension (here, look for 1.272 to 1.414 range)
A good method would be to release 80% of your SHORT position (again, this is assuming the directional condition where price would decline) and maintain 20% until price would HIT the 2-4 Line projected off of Point-3 (defining Point-5').
This 80/20 strategy assumes that in most probable time, the Geo would complete in the following vanishing probability (i.e.: from highest to lowest frequencies), including the Geo's Off-Set Rule:
1 - Point-5' completion, then reverse to the price level corresponding to Point-4;
2 - Point-5 completion, then reverse to the price level corresponding to the 1-4 Line (also, known as the "Take-Profit" Line in the Wolfe Wave strategy);
and
3 - Point-5'' completion, then reverse to the price level corresponding to Point-3.
David Alcindor
manipuflated
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Thank you for your post. I'll keep reversals to point 3 in mind more. Looks like you nailed the 3rd outcome option if that is indeed currently playing out. As for your shorts strategy, I'm personally either long or not in position at all. I took profit on an initial run from 235 to 260 so I shouldn't complain, heh. =) Wishing I would've grabbed point 3 retrace right now. I try to live on the 4H zoomed out. More relaxing for me at my current trading level.
manipuflated
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This was an interesting chart you posted a while back.
4xForecaster
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Yes. Same action probability as Bitstamp and also another one on China, I believe.
David
4xForecaster
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16 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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BTCUSD #bitstamp hit target dead-on per Geo's Off-Set Rule; Bears remain in force:
From Twitter/LinedIn:
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BTCUSD #bitstamp continues its decline from 5'' to 257.39 as forecast; Predictive Model still bearish:
#bitcoin
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David Alcindor