#2 - The Composite Group(s) would rather maintain a low trading range a while longer to squeeze shorts while continuing to accumulate.
#3 - When comparing the White Energy in the 2-Week time frame to 2012 and 2013, we can see at least four (4) 2-Week Candles in 2012 and five (5) 2-Week candles in 2013 passed by before we FINALLY began to go up exponentially.
I've marked my position as "Long" for this long term analysis. I have not elaborated what may occur in the short term. Such as the 1h, 4h or 6h time frames.
So, in my honest opinion, I do not anticipate a significant move up to $16k by year end. We are certainly still . We are just not EXPONENTIAL yet. This will still take quite a bit of time. Many will grow impatient during this time and allow emotions to dictate their trading activity. Do not fall into that trap. Simply remain patient... High will return soon enough.
Thanks for investing your valuable time out of your day to watch this video. If you will take a moment to click like, it would certainly be appreciated.
Happy Trading, Everyone and Stay Awesome! ; )
I am on leverage (though low) so I worry about how low it might drop. The white energy from below 10-day timeframes are all at or above 80 level, so I am a little lost as to how to react to that. I can't quite parse the data the way you do so I don't have the confidence knowing it won't drop through a certain level.
So I hope you make posts to update the situation often because I rely on that :). Stay awesome as well.
I'm sorry if you don't fully "get" the idea "why" we likely won't go up through $16k before year end and why we likely won't drop below $8.5k. I have other reasons for us not falling below $8,5k that was not shared in the video. For example: I've had a look at the Green 50-MA in the Daily TF back in history. I have an opinion the 50-MA in the Daily will likely be our FIRM support if we were do break below the White 200-MA in the Daily TF. Well, the Green 50-MA in the Daily is currently smack-dab in the middle (between) the two Yellow 0.142 FIB's. Those two Yellow FIB's were "previously" acting as resistance until we burned through that resistance all the way up to $10,350 on BitStamp. I believe what was previously "resistance" has now become "support." Of course, we won't know this unless we come back down to test that support.
The price action is currently above the Purple 128-EMA in the Daily; which normally acts as pretty good support in history. The Yellow 21-MA in the Daily is about to cross up and over the Green 50-MA in the Daily. That's another reason I'm not seeing a deep drop in the near future. I believe that equates to more sideways price action within a relatively tight trading range.
The White Energy in the 2-Week and 3-Week time frames are currently heading upward and will likely continue upward to well above the 50% level. We still have a while yet before they even reach the 50% level. However, I believe they have "made the turn" (so to speak); which will provide long term "support" for upward pressure. Which is another reason I believe any downward pressure we may see in the short term in lower time frames will not equate to significant downward movement in the price action. When we do see downward pressure in lower time frames, I believe they will amount to "Time" corrections more than "Price" corrections in the lower time frames; such as the 12h, 24h and 2-Day time frames.
I was stating the level of realization/understanding that I was in, that I am aware of this way of looking at things, I understand the reasons behind it, but I don't "get" it in the sense that I truly comprehend the essence in such a way that I could reproduce that level of interpretation again given the same situation without external guidance. Hopefully experience and insight accrue in time for me to acquire that capacity.
I am amazed at your prompt and selfless sharing of your thoughts and ideas. I am really grateful.
I may have mentioned to you in a previous post on another publication that I used to teach telephone technicians how to use their meter to identify, locate and clear troubles. It was VERY technical and required not only a LOT of hands-on; but also required a LOT of "REPETITION."
It's not often we run into this similar occurrence with the price action, indicators, FIB's and moving averages. So, the opportunity for REPETITION with hands-on is not afforded to us in as frequent of a manner as I prefer; like when teaching telephone technicians how to use their meter to identify, locate and clear troubles. The only way I will be able to make up for lack of repeated situations to satisfy "REPETITION" is for someone to cover the same scenario in a WELL PUT TOGETHER VIDEO multiple times over and over again. The 20 minute time frame TradingView has given me for each publication is not sufficient. Hence, the reason for the website. Also, I would prefer some compensation for my time to break it down in a way for people to understand it on my website. I think it's only fair to ask for compensation from those eager/hungry to LEARN.
As for what I've shared here, it's out of kindness and also for the purpose allowing others to see I just might know what I'm talking about. But then again, I may not know anything and simply rambling on with nonsense. lol... only kidding...
It's RARE to even consider using high leverage on positions you may take. I recommend not getting greedy and remain at x3 or x5 max on your leverage most of the time. I personally don't go above x3. It's extremely rare for me to go higher into x10 or higher unless I've been on top of the indicators for quite a while with prime market conditions in regards to volatility, etc... All of that will be explained on my website for Premium subscribers in a few videos of LIVE margin trading.
PLEASE don't get greedy with your leverage position bets!!! Go slow and steady with your leverage like a Turtle.
My opinion before margin trading is to FIRST already have a bitcoin bag (nest egg) OFF EXCHANGE in a secure wallet to act as a "cushion." It's definitely a "cushion" if you bought in a long time ago below $6k. Once the price action ascends with an "Sign of Strength" (SOS) to a higher trading range for the purpose of re-accumulation, one can then consider using a VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE for margin trading. If one has not done any or very little margin trading, I recommend they do so with very little to no leverage at all in the beginning until they have become comfortable with using the indicators for the time frame(s) they are using as a compass when margin trading. They should also be on an exchange with plenty of options (tools) to protect their capital. Especially, such tool as "TRAILING" stop. If your margin trading exchange does not have that feature, you need to pay a monthly fee using a 3rd party via an API with the TRAILING STOP FEATURE. It's worth paying the monthly fee for those features and the anonymity in my opinion.
Money management is VERY important. If we let the emotion called "Greed" control our decisions in regards to "leverage," we can get a serious trouble rather quickly. I can't emphasize enough to keep your leverage VERY LOW for quite a while (year or more) until you've become quite comfortable at controlling emotions when margin trading and using the indicators.
My reasoning for not going higher than $13,880 to the $16k price range is MAINLY based on history we have seen in 2012 and 2013. It's also due to history in regard to the White Energy. We generally do not see an EXPONENTIAL UPTHRUST in the 2-Week and 3-Week time frames until AFTER the White Energy has passed the 50 percent level. Well, if we were to do the math; based on the current location and trajectory of the White Energy in the 2-Week and 3-Week time frames, we can see we still have a few more 2-Week and 3-Week candles before the 50 percent level is passed with the White Energy. The amount of time it will take for use to reach the 50% level and higher in those time frames puts us too close to year end. Which is also why I concluded the Composite Group(s) will wait until the new year before taking our price action up EXPONENTIALLY.
I hope this makes sense... ; )
I have utmost respect for your background for at the end you have nailed this trading thing well enough at least from a layman's view. I have admiration for people who have such extraordinary energy that enables them to live a life of beauty and meaning, beauty not in pretense of manners, not in the price of clothes, not in the size of their house or wallet, but in the content of one's heart and soul. His name is Terence Palmer if you are interested. Fate is a funny thing that makes people cross path in this universe.
Too much verbosity already for a non-poster. I am always grateful.
Terence Palmer, sounds like a cool person. Just as you are equally cool, Popovich.
Thanks for sharing his life experience! Was certainly motivating and inspirational.
Much appreciated and I certainly do appreciate your support! ; )