The purpose of this publication is simply to have a "record" of my Fibonacci technique for BTCUSD personality. I've discovered that every crypto currency pair has their own "personality" when it comes to using my indicators and Fibonacci. This publication serves only to create a historical record if my Fibonacci technique actually holds true. Of course, this record is only active for as long as our bottom remains $7,714.70. If we end up going lower, we will update the FIB's with a new target in a new publication.
Here's the cover chart posted again just in case it's scrunched up by TV's platform:
If $7,714.70 Remains Bottom,
The following is an example of HOW I use Fibonacci to determine the "next" potential price range target before consolidating into a higher trading range in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. I may provide a video breakdown (step by step) of how I do this in the near future. NOTE: This example ASSUMES the current bottom of $7,714.70 remains the same. In case you are wondering, I went into the FIB "Settings" and "un-checked" every FIB level EXCEPT the 0.0, 0.618, 1.0 and 1.618. All other FIB levels were "hidden."
Here's an example of my Fibonacci technique in which it still worked out EVENTUALLY but we do have occurrences like this in 2016 on occasions with two quick pump and dumps back to back and 35% drop on each dump. Again, this is RARE but it's possible to occur again in the future.
This is an example to show you ON OCCASIONS we have an event in which the price action goes up too hard too quickly; resulting in a wick that goes up and back down too quickly to establish a clear and concise resistance level. However, the price action will eventually come back up to define that concise resistance level most of the time by going up in a more controlled/healthy behavior rather than flying up in a too quickly in an unhealthy manner. Once the price action moved up toward resistance in a more healthy manner, it REMAINED at that resistance level for quite a while to DEFINE that resistance level before consolidating once again. This is normal behavior... I simply wanted to point out that this type of price action behavior occurs at times and we need to be aware of this in order to know where to place our 0.618 FIB (at defined resistance) in order to find our future 1.618 extension.
There WILL come a time (Especially in crypto) in which your pair will go "parabolic." You still use the same technique in a "bull" market. However, it's during "parabolic" times in which your 2.618 and even the 3.618 extension will be required in conjunction with "sound" indicators to get an idea of which FIB extension is likely next in line before consolidation. Here is a quick PRIME EXAMPLE of the 3.618 FIB Extension being reached WHEN the market has entered a PARABOLIC phase before reaching a "Buying Climax" in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
Comment
⋅
WE LOST AUDIO HALF WAY THROUGH THE VIDEO PUBLICATION I JUST POSTED. So, I"M RE-DOING IT.
Comment
⋅
Comment
⋅
Providing this to show the potential for a similar move to what's circled in Yellow with remarks in Yellow Text Bubble. The reason this could be very possible present day is because we will be coming up to test ATH (All Time High) in a similar way we tested the 2013 ATH in January of 2017. One major difference is the current price action will be only a few months before a block halving. January, 2017 was NOT before a bitcoin block halving.
NOTE: The two (2) scenarios drawn or White scenario and Yellow scenario. The Yellow Scenario emulates what we saw in early 2017; when we tested the 2013 All Time High (ATH).
A look at the Red RSI and White Energy in Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA:
Comment
⋅
CORRECTION: The Bitcoin Block Halving Event is "estimated" currently for May 16, 2020. NOT 2019.
Cool... Let's see if the self fulfilling prophecy continues.
Stay Awesome!
David
pdmaher123
⋅
Historically though, past two times, if I Iooked at it right BTC has not made a new ATH till after the halving, so maybe your 13-14K or 16-18K regions?
Sure hope not ;) I haven't looked into or done anything with Fib lines, did see there were other color ranges on your chart and figured maybe these are also significant fib areas where BTC might find itself at halving? There are certainly differences with this halving and previous ones. Possibly there is more awareness of halving significance, that might tend toward an earlier run up. The halvings themselves are not the same, as the rate of decrease in inflation is becoming smaller each time, market cap orders of magnitude difference etc. While I have to always try and keep in mind BTC might simply start behaving differently, from memory the increase in price at time of halving to ATH was ~100x with first halving about ~33x with second halving (just thought that might be close to pi), so ... maybe 10-11x from price at 3rd halving. If there was a 5x increase from our price today over the next two years that would still be a heck of a run. Enjoying your videos, I posted a comment on reddit a day or two ago, before seeing your latest video, saying I declared the mini bear market over, haha. Either we are in a bull market or not, we got ahead of ourselves with the incredible run in first half of year, big pull back, but eventually that regression to the mean trend line of a bull market should kick in. 6K and I would have to start to wonder if maybe BTC is changing behavior and we are not actually in a bull market. Thanks for the videos.
Staying Awesome, got it!
We would have to drop below $5,000 before I would say the bull market could POSSIBLY be over. I feel quite confident that where ever we end up will ultimately transition into a strong bull trend beginning the 2nd week of January, 2020. However, I'm still sticking to my analysis on the bottom likely being in.