BTC is showing signals that the B-wave of its corrective phase has completed and it will be starting its C-wave to complete the structure. The C wave will take it to new lows in 2024, this idea projects the first leg down to kick off the C-wave.
Initial target 17793 by 10/10/2023
The breakdown level was 27791, so as long as it stays below that I am expecting it to continue down along the black trajectory. A break above could open the door to 37k as a best case for bulls.
On the way to 17000s it needs to breakdown 24-25k.
This is bearish people.
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Next leg down will begin this week
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Still bearish unless we see sustained break of 27791 - we have the support trendline (maroon) right above that level which can be tested for resistance before dropping back below 27791 if it is breached.
Expecting downside continuation to 24495 by this weekend.
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Sharp rejection at the 27791 (nearly exactly) increases likelihood for the bearish case from here. Typical breakdown then retest before big down.
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First downside target from here after it breaks below 25.3k will be 22800 by 9/15.
As you already know I currently do not think this is a W-X-Y bear market continuation pattern, rather just the 2 wave of a 5 wave bull trend. My expectation is maximum ~19k downside. Discussion:
I want to thank you and @goodblackcat for motivating me to understand why this crashing and relinquish my dumb money stance.
JerryManders
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@shelby3, lol, its the end of a B-wave. Top for BTC was July 13th, top for SPX was July 27th. You know Elliot Wave so I'm just surprised you would even consider buying into a C-wave.
shelby3
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@JerryManders, you are the arguing for a C-wave not me. I can’t parse your comment. Coming off the Nov 2022 bottom, Bitcoin has a completed 5 wave pattern, which I think fulfills wave 1 of a bullish 5 wave pattern which was also the case in 2019 for the corresponding juncture in the mining difficulty halving cycle which controls Bitcoin. What is your point?
Note how in 2019 Bitcoin declined, then bounced before the ~4-year period halving and then spike wick low around the halving (C19 FUD) which was wave 2, followed by wave 3 into 2021, then wave 4 and 5 with the top in Nov 2021. Why are you so gung-ho for a corrective EW interpretation when that seems to violate Bitcoin’s halving cycle? However, Bitcoin is obviously weaker than it was in 2019, so a lower-low seems plausible if Bitcoin is stuck below its 200 SMA and even the long-term regression line as shown by Crypto Zombie, and it will mean crypto is very weak.
I am willing to entertain the thesis that crypto is very weak, given the horrific macroeconomic monetary reset, Thucydides trap and enslavement plan underway and accelerating into the dystopian end game. Got your iris scanned by WorldCoin yet for the upcoming central bank digital currency system?
Capital is becoming very conservative, preferring well connected corporations that can sell bonds at very low interest rates, e.g. Apple. Or now high yielding, highly liquid, no market risk money market funds. The banking system is being intentionally collapsed to centralize control over everything. The Canadian trucker debanking will look like a walk in park soon.
shelby3
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@JerryManders, are you not positing that Bitcoin just completed its B-wave (A-wave posited from the Nov 2021 top) and thus a C-wave underway to a lower low?
shelby3
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@JerryManders, I reckon what you are referring to is a posited A-B-C wave pullback on Bitcoin instead of a W-X-Y continuation to lower lows? Definitely there is a very clearly A-B-C pullback in play on Ethereum, targeting $1500. After that rockets back up these markets.
JerryManders
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@shelby3, The yellow line will act as major resistance heading into initial target of 17793. The dashed maroon angle trendline under it will likely act as support.
shelby3
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@JerryManders, your black box yellow line is entirely useless to everyone (how can anyone put any faith into something they can not vet and contemplate the inner workings/factors/assumptions/axioms/theorems/etc), until you open source your methods. Why closed source? Nobody has any clue whether you pull your prognostications out of your arse or throw darts at the dart board. Show your work. At least Vitalik shares which opens a discussion and is a lot more interesting: vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/08/16/communitynotes.html
JerryManders
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@shelby3, that will never happen. I provide target and time to target that's enough.