BTC wants to go to overbought again on weekly timeframe. It would be ultra weird if not.
Weekly stoch RSI has not been on overbought since a very long time, probably the longest time in BTC history. It needs to be overbought again on weekly, so that it can prepare for the next dump, which hopefully will be the final one.
At least there is a high probability it will be.
On the daily timeframe I see it dragging on still for a bit, until upward momentum is established.
Sort long ration is already turning again towards shorts, slowly, but still noticeable.
Well, I still think we'll see 5000-5300 in the next weeks, probably until the end of february. Then creeping sideways and the final leg down.
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I wish I could update more or make new charts more often, but the price action of BTC is currently so boring, that I have trouble staying awake in front of the PC, hehe. BTC is postponing this upmove as long as it can. Probably because the longs are still too high, and it's waiting for the people to start shorting more. Anyways, I am still convinced of the upmove before the next downmove. We have to be patient and drink a lot of coffee during the next weeks :)
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Woa, a bit of price movement, finally. So, it seems that finally the upmove, that we've been waiting for since weeks, may start to unfold.
Shorts are going up again, which is a good sign.
Still on target for 5000 range within the next weeks, then finally the next dump wave, which will (most likely) yield the final low for this bearmarket.
BTCUSD H4 Correction up. Checkout the idea detail's and all the update's for the complete picture.
SebastianofMoon
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@Boon2, Thanks! Your chart is looking good :) And very accurate so far. Keep up the good work!
Boon2
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Cheer's. I'm not sure the internal B wave is complete, checkout the latest update in the let's idea to see the possible structure I see..
AqibMoeen
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Really good call, seems to be the temporary bottom hopefully reverses up to 5.2k before finally reaching capitulation heheheh <3
SebastianofMoon
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@AqibMoeen, Thanks :) Until now it's looking good, let's see if the part with the pumpt to 5.2k also happens. I have the feeling that it must, weekly stoch RSI points strongly towards it. However, the longs are very high which I don't like too much, speaks more for dumps :/ We'll find out soon, I am 70% inclined towards that scenario. However, I am pretty sure that we'll see new lows in 2019.
AqibMoeen
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@FlaviusTodorius67, yeah thats the only thing bit worried about the btcusdshorts are at really low levels could possibly mean we retest for a proper double bottom but still too hard to say
SebastianofMoon
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@AqibMoeen, Yes, quite a bit of uncertainty developed within the last weeks because the shorts suddenly went down so much. We indeed could make a double bottom, then up again. Weird behavior of BTC. Yeah, let's watch and see :)
voidarkterror
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Thanks, but...
Is not possible for you that BTC already found the bottom in december 2018?
SebastianofMoon
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@voidarkterror, Possible is everything with bitcoin, but I think the likelihood is high that it will go lower. There are several reasons for this:
1. BTC likes to destroy people, and too many people "hope" that this was the bottom
2. Daily transactions are not high enoug yet (metcalfe price too low)
3. Halving needed for price growth, and is still far away (mid 2020)
4. Stock market probably will continue falling and will drag BTC along down
These are some of the reasons that still make me bearish. From 2020 onwards, I will activate bullmode again :)