Without fail, every single major Bitcoin crash in history has flashed a bearish MACD crossover on the weekly and has fallen below the 21 weekly EMA. Literally every time this happens Bitcoin crashes. It was true when it went from above $1100 in 2014 to $150, when it went from 20K to 3K in 2018, when it went from 14K to $3800 in 2019, and we see the same signal now from 64K.
The obvious question is where will it find support. The most logical answer based on trend is the 50 weekly MA or slightly below, which would also support filling the gap on the CME futures between 24K and 27K. I'm not saying that it WILL do this, but trend is your friend until it isn't. And until this trend is broken and the market proves to you otherwise not recognizing it is being dogmatic for no reason. Nothing moves in a linear fashion. We will likely see multiple dead cat bounces if we are heading there. If the trend is broken and we magically go up from here, nothing would make me happier, so I'm not rooting for BTC's downfall at all.
Now if you're a long term holder, countless backtests and studies have shown that nothing beats dollar cost averaging. I have no doubt that Bitcoin will be worth more in years than it is today. If you are a trader, you most likely would've already exited your position at your short term profit target.
Only time will tell whether the trend ends here or not. We wait and see.
I am in long since 2017 and actually just read some ideas here and there when I’m at TradingView. Have to admit that i really like your point of view and I do think the same. Gonna buy at 20k or something. Wish you good luck.
PyleStyle
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@albarex, don't wait for a potential in the 20k's though: dollar cost average. I can't stress this enough. I've tried to time my big BTC purchases so many times and almost without fail, I've overpayed vs if I would have just DCA'd. I had FOMO of "I need to get in now before it goes to the moon." And yeah, that moon rocket might happen one day for me to catch it but any investor worth his/her salt knows DCA is king here for long-term HODLers.
thriftyBus59460
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Best analysis ever Z. Markets are markets no matter what.
beckjgee
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I have been researching for a week now on the crypto space and learnt a tremendous amount as there is a tremendous amount to learn as a complete beginner. I was going to go all in on Bitcoin as a long term trade until I saw your video. I love the data analysis yours is spectacular ! Even more evidence to hold off a bit longer.
lucasrmcf1
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Has the head and shoulders pattern taken full shape today?
powahousealex
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I believe it to fall to 16-18k area . If governments inter vein like how china did i can see the pair falling faster
bed87
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What about @ 32-34k around there?
PyleStyle
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@bed87, DCA mang! You're never going to catch the bottom. Just start DCA'ing now and you'll thank yourself in six-months.