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BITCOIN following Apple's 2008/09 Bear Fractal. Bottom is in!

INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) on the right along with Apple ( AAPL ) on the left chart on a very interesting comparison on the 1W time-frame. I will keep it short as the picture is quite self-explanatory.

As you see, Bitcoin's 2021/22 Bear Cycle has been very similar so far to Apple's 2008/09 Bear Cycle during the Housing Crisis. Following a rough Double Top (1 & 3) they both dropped below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and started slowing down only after breaking the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but at the same time keeping the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) intact. Both turned their 1W RSI into oversold territory exactly when they broke below the 1W MA200 and recovered above their MA (yellow trend-line).

That is where BTC is at currently. For Apple that RSI MA break was the start of a three month consolidation before the parabolic rally that took the stock into the new age of growth of the past 13 years. For comparison purposes I've plotted that same Apple recovery pattern on Bitcoin to give us a rough idea of an estimate. It doesn't have to follow that sequence of course but it makes an interesting projection. Perhaps the most useful conclusion we can draw from the whole comparison is that, assuming investor psychology doesn't differ among different asset classes, with history showing that psychological models in extreme market conditions tend to stay the same, Bitcoin has strong probabilities of already having priced its bottom.


What is your opinion on this comparison? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!



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