ronfkingswanson
Short

Plotting long-term correction to Nov. rally based on April rally

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1417 3 26
Thanks to @DanV, we can see the deviation experienced in both the April and November rallies, including how far from the mean the april correction extended to the opposite 1.0 boundary. Given a similar range on the peak of the Nov. rally at the 1.0 boundary, it would seem unlikely for the resulting correction to stop only by returning to the mean, and only during the brief moment of the bottom of the last panic sell. A longer, more gradual organic decline to a new bottom would be more effective in establishing a solid base for the next upward trend.
Tagada
2 years ago
I agree, this would be the ideal and probably healthiest scenario. The recent Zynga news along with the current price manipulation might decide otherwise though. I expect yet another retest of the $885 resistance on MtGox (the 4th or so).
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ronfkingswanson PRO Tagada
2 years ago
there could be a little more bullish rise before the very non-specific descent pattern kicks in, yes - but the longer-term need to return some equilibrium to the price after the massive November rally will still hold the greatest pull.
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CryptoCoinSolutions Tagada
2 years ago
The Zynga news comes at a time when bitcoin adoption by merchants is just beginning to have the potential to become viral. The software methods and the brick and mortar connections are at a tipping point of the first stage of buildout. Just as we saw with the internet itself, the payment for value on the internet began for virtual goods and that rapidly expanded to real goods. Payment for email upgrades, payment for classified ads, payments for online dating services, etc ...

We saw brick and mortar business adopt fiat payments, via the internet, for goods as the infrastructure for delivery of those goods lagged behind businesses who wished to sell the goods online, for fiat. We should see the same infrastructure payment economy of scale develop for bitcoin and parallel that infrastructure development. More and more brick and mortar businesses are discussing how to take payment in bitcoinn more and more seriously, it's no longer silly talk over tea. Business that would then deliver goods, like UPS and FEDX, etc ... they are just beginning to talk over "tea" about how silly it would be, so software and virtual goods will be the first goods sold in significant amounts for bitcoin and they will be delivered in the same manner, over the internet. Accounting systems for brick and mortar established businesses to then connect delivery infrastructure to bitcoin payment has barely been discussed, but of course, this must occur, and that is a blockchain application, one of the many applications of scale we will see built upon the blockchain in one way or another. So one downloads the software, (Zynga game upgrades), and purchases a key for the software with bitcoin, (your key is your Zynga user authentication). So Zynga, with a gigantic userbase is attempting, knowingly or not, to spark this revolution in purchasing goods, virtual goods, online with bitcoin in a big way. MEGAcoin, already using supportive marketing techniques for their coin, pitching at low intensity to the gamer community is positioned well to do exactly the same thing as Zynga but on a global game level, rather than for a proprietary game level. And I think Zynga's news will forestall a larger corrective phase that we would expect for this reversal that we are still experiencing after the bottom at $9.119. Certainly, other online gaming systems are rushing in meetings to observe Zynga and take from what they do a lesson on how to accept bitcoin payment for their gaming online. And of course the gambling gaming industry certainly has taken note of the wild and successful exit strategy executed by Satoshi Dice. I'm neutral to long, in the short term, a bit bullish ... but of course, bad news is pressing on the balance more firmly on the fiat side of the balance as State power exerts bad mojo on the CryptoCurrency paradigm. More and more news like the news we hear from Zynga could tip that rapidly and explosively, after all, those involved in bitcoin don't care for the State and to a large extent ... just don't care at all about fiat controls exercised to preclude fiat capital flow into bitcoin exchanges, etc ...

A new wave of CrytpoNewbies, perhaps older with more cash, the very large gaming community itself could rush in rapidly. There is a gap forming that needs to be filled, compression is the word of the day in every level of the zoom.
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