monkia

In response to "A Tail of Two Fisherman" by Goldbug1

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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@goldbug1 has written a really entertaining post today (see link below). His posts are good but are almost always mega bull on BTCUSD and so I like to read his posts to get a sense for how the bulls are interpreting the market action. I thought it would be fun to write an alternative 'count' on his recent post.

Last year I visited a lake and was surprised with the huge fish that were being pulled out of it. The queues to get in were massive and it seemed even those that have never fished before could pull out massive 30 lbs fish. I even had a go and took home several whoppers for my tea.

Over Easter I revisited it and was surprised to see that the queues had gone and the general atmosphere was negative. I managed to have a chat with a guy I met last year. Gordon Gold was looking pretty low but was putting on a brave face. Counting three rods, I asked him why he had so many.

"Well, it's simple, see that red rod there, the rod and bait on it cost me $17,000. That blue rod was much better, it only cost me $13,000. The green rod, was a right bargain, it cost me $10,000. At one point last year a single big fish could sell for as much as $20,000 so I'm well happy with my investments and plan to keep buying more rods if I can get them even cheaper."

"Have you seen any big fish being caught recently?"

"No where near the amount caught last year. The last big one I caught went for a tidy $11,000, although Darren Day over there caught a big one recently that only went for $7,400. There are guys that have been here for years that that have got fed up and reel in their rods and sell them and their bait back to Suzy Short. A few have even opened shops doing what she is doing. They are complete idiots but I love them because it means I can buy more rods and bait cheaper from Suzy. In fact I just bought this black rod, Suzy was almost giving it away at $7,000. I'm well chuffed because my average cost of rods is now down from 13.3k to 11.75k"

"Aren't you worried that there are no big fish left or any that are will be worth less than the one Darren Day recently sold his for?"

"No way, I keep seeing Darren Day catching small fish every day."

"But you are only trying to get the big fish? And didn't Darren Day say that the fish he catches are getting smaller almost every day and when he catches big ones, the price he is able to sell them for is getting lower?"

"Well, if I wait long enough those small fish will grow into big fish and people will always want big fish! He's a fool for selling the fish he catches, he should hold on until they are worth more."

"But that could take years and maybe they will never grow as big as the fish are today, let alone the end of last year. Wouldn't you be better off spending your time and money somewhere else until you know the big fish are back? Or maybe do what Darren is doing and try and buy a cheap rod, catch a few fish and cash in. Suzy Short also seems to be doing well, couldn't you just focus on selling to the fishermen for a while? Once it looks like the big fish are back you can always swap back to doing what you did last year."

"No way. That would mean I would have to admit my red, blue, green and black rods are worth less than what I paid for them. If I leave these rods in the water I haven't lost a dollar."

"But what if the big fish never return?"

"Dude, you are stupid. That would be great, it would mean I can keep buying my rods cheaper and cheaper, lowering my average cost of rods. I'll simply leave them in the water forever because they could eventually be worth $20,000 or more!"

"Won't you run out of money eventually?"

"Yes, but as long as those rods are in the water, I will be asset rich!"
Comment: Trading updates available here:

This is awesome and so true.... mega like for you!!
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You might wanna take a look at this fractal plus technical combo analysis of bitcoin

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monkia Commodore3
@Commodore3, yeah, very similar. I'm hoping for more of a retrace before shorting, which would be more inline with your fractals.
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@monkia, I doubt if you'll get the retrace you're looking for. I see this coin getting badly beaten in the coming hours/days. Look at the last fractal in lower timeframes and see how similar it is to the other two. Also checkout flibflib's idea which I added under the related ideas section
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Please is there a LOVE button on Trading View? I guess this post deserves something more than just a LIKE. Lol
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Commodore3 Commodore3
@Commodore3, In the world of cryptos, it simply pays to keep your sentiments aside and be downright logical and honest with yourself. That's just where goldbug gets it all wrong
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monkia Commodore3
@Commodore3, thanks for the feedback. Time will tell if he gets it wrong or right, but I suppose that wasn't the point I was trying to get across as we all have long or short views and, to coin a phrase from @goldbug1, they can often change on a dime. The challenge I have, whether one's view is short or long, is a trading/investment strategy that HODLs a position indefinitely, until that trade becomes profitable. It could be a very very long wait, and at the extremes may never happen e.g. 99% of shares in the dotcom boom.

I also don't subscribe to the view that, 'I made a load of money last year on BTC, so these trades are free'. Surely one could say, "I've already done the work to earn my salary which I am using for this trade, so really it's a free trade." It reminds me of a friend when I was a teenager. He had a lovely new TV in his bedroom and I asked how much it cost.

"It was free!!".
"Are you kidding me, how did you get it free?"
"Well, I put a bet on the footie and won £300 and bought this TV with it."

I didnt have the heart to ask him how many times he had put a bet on and lost.
+2 Reply
@monkia, Nice narrative once again. And truly only time shall tell. Let's perch on our seats, keep an eye on our laptops and see what the near future holds for our beloved bitcoin
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I've never seen anyone go through so much trouble to inform another person of making a financial mistake. You should be given an award. Seriously.
+2 Reply
Good story, it is always interesting to see people positioning themselves for a huge move while ignoring everything else that is happening
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