Bitcoin: Most Random Here.

Bitcoin is now fluctuating in a highly random location. This means signals that appear in this range (see long blue rectangle on chart) are likely to have a 50% chance of follow through in a way that you "think". My suggestion is to avoid swing trades in this area and only consider setups on smaller time frames (day trades). This way you keep expectations low, potentially capture a small price movement and keep risk to a minimum. That is how to navigate these situations most effectively.

In my most recent student meeting, I reviewed the key levels for Bitcoin and how to manage expectations around these levels. This is key because probabilities can be associated with particular levels and this can help immensely when it comes to evaluating trade setups that appear in the future. The 25K to 26K AREA is the key support (see blue square on chart) and the 29 to 30K AREA is the resistance. As long as price action continues to consolidate between these areas, trade signals on larger time frames are likely to be less reliable.

For swing trades, IF price can retest the key support zone (25 to 26K) and reverse, I am interested in long setups. Especially since the broader trend is still clearly bullish. In this scenario I would anticipate a test of high (30K). From this you can figure out the reward/risk (or you can use my ATR method).

On the short side, 29 to 30K or low 30Ks upon a bearish reversal BUT important to keep in mind that shorts are COUNTER trend. That means they have a lower probability to follow through. Better to expect little if you choose this route.

Understand that while the broader trend is bullish (confirmed by price structure), price can fluctuate inside the current range for as long as it wants. A catalyst will have to come along and instigate a change. This is why it is POINTLESS to forecast the future beyond a few weeks OR listen to those who purport such nonsense. Charts cannot help us forecast where a market will be in 3 month, 6 months, etc. (See Efficient Markets Hypothesis).

Take note when there is financial drama in the news, and who over reacts to it. Recall the bank failures a month ago? Gold was supposed to be at 3K by now as per the "experts". Meanwhile they were instructing investors to buy gold at a multi year high (also known as a resistance). See gold today? How many investors were fleeced as a result of their own ignorance, conventional "logic" and emotional inadequacies? Hopefully by now you have a better idea as to how this deceptive industry works. See the Nasdaq?

Yes this economic environment is confusing if you cling to conventional logic. There are some underlying reasons as to what is behind some of this senselessness BUT if you simply accept price, and follow momentum, the confusion can be minimized.

Contrary to popular opinion, markets are more of a mind game than anything else. YOU are your biggest obstacle to success in this game. To thrive in the markets, you need an open mind, knowledge of how sentiment and herd mentality shape probabilities, and a routine way to recognize opportunities while estimating risk. If this were easy, all the frauds that you watch on Youtube would actually be making consistent money from their trades like they claim. More about reality tomorrow during my stream.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

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