4xForecaster
Short

Bear Brass Bare-Knucle Brigade Pummel Bulls $BTC #bitcoin #Forex

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
17228 322 54
Friends,

As indicated yesterday (see here:
Bears Bring Beef Jerky In Caves For Winter | $BTC #bitcoin $USD
), I added a new feature in the predictive analysis and forecasting, which provides a "line in the sand" where bulls and bears are likely to take over, if and once price surpasses it. The condition here is one that I would define as a "BACA" (A term soe other trader came up with in a Facebook             Forex discussion group, called"The Giraffe Room" - See Bubboo Bains). In essence, BACA means nothing more than price "Breaking Across + Closing Across" a given level.

In this particular case, the Bearish BACA line (from here on: "(-) BACA") was defined at 429.02. Hence, a price cross below this line would also have to close below this line to engage the higher probability of a bearish scenario to unfold. It appears to me that this H4 chart is still in the midst of fashioning a price bar, and that no commitment below this level has been made. Nonetheless, I thought it prudent to foretell that this is possibly underway.

As the bulls are getting pummeled, let's simply wait and see what comes of this BACA line. In the mean time, I would add that prior analysis remains intact and targets in sight - Link to most recent analysis is available above, as well as in TradingView's "Related Ideas" - Here is a Worst-Case Scenario that was originally posted, as well:
$BTCUSD/BitFinex: Worse Case Scenario | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
- Turns out that this Worst-Case Scenario is currently unfolding.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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LastBattle
2 years ago
Wild king bear has appeared.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - NOoo kidding ... News Flash ... "Bare Brass-Knuckle Bar Fighting Bears Discovered ... In Forex Lounge."
+2 Reply
kakola
2 years ago
Oh 4xForecaster, I know it's a secret, but I'm so curious as to how that 416.27 level was defined. I can see it was a previous support on one one of the many dips in the past, but wouldn't have been enough for me to select that. Can you give me a hint? Fibs? How does he do it?!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kakola
2 years ago
@kakola - The secret recipe is: I use an old goat skin bag, camel knuckle bones, and orange juice. I mix it, pour it over dices, and let the dices dry overnight in my cats' sandbox. I rolled the dices at 07:13 the following morning.

If targets corresponds to a former R/S or pivot level, than all the better for it, as it would effectively work the same as using 3-5 Fib clusters.

The levels I used are defined off of the chart first - Meaning that the Model defines the direction and strength of the underlying asset. Once both are determined, it assigns a "depth" which, when applied to a price chart, turns out into a numerical Dollar value - Is this more clear than the goat skin bag explanation?

David
+3 Reply
minbari PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
That looks a lot like Colonel Sander's secret recipe to me
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO minbari
2 years ago
Darn, oh, well - He should have had a "TM" after it - David
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I prefer the more voodoo oriented approach...I personally drink some grog before it melts my jar before forecasting and then proceed to calculate random square of 9 figures and read my horoscope in the newspaper. (dead on hit :D)
+1 Reply
devlspawn
2 years ago
So are you saying if the bulls fail to overtake and close 429.02 for this 4H they've likely lost the battle, or we just need to watch the fight longer for confirmation.

The bulls are having a spirited go of it.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO devlspawn
2 years ago
snapshot
I'd expect it to keep going down.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - huge stopping volume is that you got at the first large candle, then possibly institutional entries at the second - David
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
And what about that lower close? Also, any cues about the wave count in this scenario? I exited my shorts already, hit targets fine at 390. Now scratching my head a bit.