BTCUSD Bullish and Bearish sentiment levels

Right now Bitcoin is consolidating after a full-week of strong gains (+33%). To get a rounded overview of where we might be headed in the near future, I've applied the Fibonacci retracement levels on the 1D time-frame from the January 22 low to the April 14 high.


** Bearish signs **
At the moment the strongest and most obvious hurdle for BTC is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We haven't closed above it for almost a month (last 1D closing above it was on May 20) having registered a clear rejection on May 26.

As discussed on previous analyses, a Death Cross is emerging on 1D (MA50 crossing below the MA200), which technically is a bearish formation.

A 'hidden' bearish sign can be seen on the 1D RSI where it just got rejected on a Lower Highs trend-line that stands since January 08.


** Bullish signs **
The most encouraging sign is that the price action is on Higher Lows and Higher Highs since May 26. That forms a Channel Up.

The 1W MA50 (bold red line) is intact.

The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level has supported more candles than not.

The MACD is still on a Bullish Cross


** Levels to beat **
The bullish sentiment will get stronger on the short-term as long as the Channel Up holds. On the contrary, the bearish case prevails if it breaks the Higher Lows trend-line.

The 1D MA200 is headed for the 0.5 Fibonacci trend-line, which last time it broke and closed a 1D candle above it (February 08), opened the way for new Highs. So if this level is crossed, BTCUSD succeeds in breaking two important bearish barriers.

The range above the 0.50 Fib and the (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line of the April 14 High, is the transition phase, where the price can turn neutral again. Only above this line, can we claim with a strong level of confidence that the long-term bullish trend is back.



Which formation and levels do you think will prevail? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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