Why this could be wrong: -Rising wedge is typically bearish -Bitcoin overextended on all large time frames
Why I think it's right: -Fundamentals (institutional buying) -Lots of dumb money will chase the price and buy into the FOMO -Lines up with the death of the clown show known as Segwit2X (not saying they won't go through with it, but the market will realize that bitcoin has effectively survived every attack thrown at it, and all uncertainty about the one true bitcoin being dethroned will be removed)
Then we look for a huge A-B-C correction after all the dumb money buys the top. Sorry for the messy charts, but they are primarily for me. If they help you I'm also happy.
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This is also a possibility (wave 1 of 5 not over yet) and fits more in with my 4h count: Can evaluate as we go, but the idea here is much, much higher prices. Again traditional technical analysis would probably disagree with this, but things can get crazy in bitcoin.
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Sticking with the original interpretation for now.
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And to clarify (because the chart makes this confusing) I believe (green) wave 2 has already completed. Meant to draw it to the bottom of the wick.
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Initial count (that i'm stickign with for now) shown zoomed in:
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Something didn't feel right, hit the labs, did some soul searching and found the answer: Will publish a new chart.
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So to be clear, I believe we are in wave 5 of 5, but it can be a big one. Could look something like this (just a guess):
Interesting count. Thanks for sharing. I tend to think your green (1) and (2) can be counted as a full EW cycle, making for 3 consecutive bull impulses starting from around March this year.
Where I'm a bit skeptical is that your green leg (3) continues rather than accounting for a real pull back and recapitulation phase. Reasons for my skepticism:
1) The last 3 bull cycles have produced lower highs
2) We're seeing bearish divs on the weekly chart
3) We'd need to double the market cap in 2 months in order to hit targets (according to your chart)
The last 3 cycles have bounced off 0.618 to signal another bull run. I'll be looking for this as a signal to buy back in. If not, we may be heading towards 3k.
I've attached a chart to show my count. Open to thoughts/feedback:
ltc-joe
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@DamonAndTheSea, Great analysis. Not saying you are wrong, but i'll just explain my reasoning for considering what you have labeled as wave 5 as wave B. A rule of thumb I use is that if an impulsive wave can not break the 1.38 extension of the last down swing, than its probably actually some type of a flat pattern. Also, in this case, your wave 5 subdivides into 3 waves IMO. So those two factors to me say wave b of some type of flat correction.
Now, funny thing is, even if we assume that I am right, it can still turn out to be an "expanded flat" as opposed to what i think it is--a "running flat". If it was expanded that would leave room for a big drop perhaps not as low as you have it. And this is why I use EW as a guide hahaha unless the count if pretty clear. But here's the big takeaway: I'm stickign with my analysis until we break the recent low (your red line). So if we break the red line, then I am in full agreement we are going much lower as that would make for a beautiful head and shoulders pattern like we saw on the last major top.
TL;DR if we make new lows then this is all wrong and a head and shoulders pattern ahs confirmed...but I'm not expecting that to happen. THanks for your comment.
DamonAndTheSea
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@btc_joe, Sorry for the slow response and thank you for the thoughtful write up. Your rule for 1.38 extension is something I'll consider in future analysis.
I also agree that the red line at 0.236 is sturdy confirmation extended C leg down to at least $5100.
Right now at $6100 after the wedge and blood letting short squeeze, it's difficult to know if we're going to see $5400.
But I have to say something about this last rally fells... well... off.
FYI destination the same but slight change to my count:
luigiborla
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finally somebody understand it
tchat
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You're right, it's kind of hard to see, but are you looking at being done with any corrections for now? It looks like your chart is portraying a probability of accumulation for another week or so before heading straight for 10K. Is that more or less what you're seeing?
ltc-joe
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@tchat, basically yes, or it could just start to get going from here. But I don't think we are going much lower.
tchat
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@btc_joe, That's an interesting perspective -- one that has me questioning how much longer I should wait for the optimal entry. Thanks for your thoughts.
Where I'm a bit skeptical is that your green leg (3) continues rather than accounting for a real pull back and recapitulation phase. Reasons for my skepticism:
1) The last 3 bull cycles have produced lower highs
2) We're seeing bearish divs on the weekly chart
3) We'd need to double the market cap in 2 months in order to hit targets (according to your chart)
The last 3 cycles have bounced off 0.618 to signal another bull run. I'll be looking for this as a signal to buy back in. If not, we may be heading towards 3k.
I've attached a chart to show my count. Open to thoughts/feedback: