DrDovetail

bearflag morphs into symmetrical triangle; waitin for higher low

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
My stop loss was triggered earlier and the current bearflag that was forming on the 1hr seems to be now morphing into more of a symmetrical triangle about to reach it's apex...probability favors a downward break but if we notice on the 4hr the previous 4hr candle was a long legged reversal doji which may be enough for a trend reversal....so far there has been hardly any volume which is normal when reaching the apex of a triangle. A symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern and since it iws happening in a downtrend probability fgavors a downward break...however the long leegged reversal doji on the 4hr is the one thing keeping this idea neutral instead of short. We shall see which way it breaks in the next 2 1hr candles or so.
Comment: whenever the reversal occurs we will likely finally have established a new higher low. I anticipate a break down from this triangle which will take us to around 7770. A good zone for resuming the uptrend I'd say but we could also find that we dip to the 7500s before having the 4hr 50 ma breaking the fall and creating a solid rebound back upwards....there is also potential support from te grey ascending trendline just below that, and worst case scenario imo going all the way back to the Eve pink curved trendline around 7300 before bouncing back up. There is also a few fib lines that could provide support along the way. I'm confident that whenever we reverse the trend a new higher low will be formed.
Comment: and of course if we can break bullishly upward from the current symmetrical triangle then the higher low is already in.
Comment: no break out confirmation yet....the symmetrical triangle has expanded into the 4hr chart and the lines have now been expanded and angles adjusted proportionatly....it appears as if the triangle could potentially expand more into just a normal 4hr bear flag....if this occurs then the project target of a breakout from it will be much further than had it been just the triangle because you factor in the height of the pole. If a bearish breakout occurs and it ends up being a bear flag instead of a symmetrical triangle then it would likely breakdown to the 7500s where it would probably be caught buy the 50ma by the time it gone down to that pricepoint. I would anticipate a rebound from that point but would also be preparted if it dipped below there to the ascending grey trendline or I think worst case scenario: the pink eve bottom trendline. FOr now we still wait to see whether it will break up or down, if it decides to morph into a bear flag then it may be a few more 4 hour candles
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