Though Bitcoin is attempting to find support at 45k which may lead to another leg higher I am not as optimistic as most. We did issue an aggressive long signal on Friday that never triggered and a good thing it didn't. Buy Stops help keep us from getting in a trade too early only to get stopped out and sticking to our strategy this is one of those times.
Patience is virtuous not the impulsive nature of most. Sure it could have made a "V" type move and we missed out on buying the dip, but it also can and still may, keep on dipping and all those buying the initial dip will be blowing out there positions which can lead to an acceleration of the dip. So what are the important levels here?
A close below 44k and continuation I am looking at a swing into the low to mid 30's where I am a buyer.
A close above 52k and continuation, is a long for a swing to potentially the mid 60's where I am a seller
If you noticed selling pressure picked back up in the low 50's and we are now lingering around support. Many may think this is accumulation, but IMO if we do not bounce in the next day or two, it is a sign of weakness.
Bitcoin is also showing a proportional structure to the previous consolidation, not to the initial consolidation off the prior low, and proportionality does matter. Again unless we get that impulsive swing in the next couple days this is likely part of a broader correction.
I want to be clear, as it appears many do not understand I am never 100% out of the market, I simply like to take some risk off into highs. I have 65% of my initial position and those buying now are paying 8x's my average cost.
Yes the "I found Bitcoin as a savior" evangelist are coming out of the woodwork. The Michael Saylor's of the world found salvation, but honestly many of these guys only found it last year. Bitcoin to 100 trillion dollar market cap!!! Really?
Where were all these bulls at 5-10-15-20k? Sure there were many buying at these levels but with so many jumping in at the ATH and it is not going higher, it would seem like most would step back and ask why? But they are blinded by the light. Yeah you can see it with all the laser eyes popping up everywhere, this isn't focus its blinding!
With all the new ETF's, companies jumping on the bandwagon, huge purchases by MicroStrategy , Square and others, you would think Bitcoin would be pushing 80k not 44. Step back and think why is it not going higher with all these 1 billion dollar purchases, and if that does not throw up a red flag it should!
Now am I saying we see 15 or 20k Bitcoin in the next couple months? I think this is highly unlikely, but I do think it is reasonable to see the low 30's over the next month or so.
I closing many are going to have their first I bought the dip and it kept on dipping moment. Yes when everyone is posting laser eyes on their profile, getting ridiculous calls for more ridiculous market caps, and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon, yet price keeps on dipping it is a sign there are too many bulls, and markets do not like crowded trades.
Bullish in the long term, I need to emphasize this for those that quickly read over my articles and misunderstand the context. However in the short term, lower prices are a higher probability than most think.
In the end the market will determine who is right and who is wrong, but it is not about being right or wrong, it is about being diligent and sticking to a plan. We have a plan and I am not going to allow the FOMO to interfere with our long term goals.
Either way I stand to benefit from whatever the market decides. Market moves higher, so does the value of my portfolio, market moves lower, I have cash to buy. See most think that they need to be 100% in the market as it moves higher, but this is a sure sign of greed and we all know what results when the market is greedy!
Hey we all make that move at some point in our investment careers where we buy the dip and it keeps on dipping. Many are going to get their first experience of the pain that can result in buying the initial dip without any structure, or base of support. The key thing is did you learn from your mistake? Education is not cheap and the most expensive education you can get is in the equity markets!
Now dip buying is not all bad, it is how you buy the dip that counts! As I mentioned in my last article, if you are buying the dip, small nibbles, not big bites. However most have the Las Vegas mentality "ALL IN".
Patience is virtuous not the impulsive nature of most. Sure it could have made a "V" type move and we missed out on buying the dip, but it also can and still may, keep on dipping and all those buying the initial dip will be blowing out there positions which can lead to an acceleration of the dip. So what are the important levels here?
A close below 44k and continuation I am looking at a swing into the low to mid 30's where I am a buyer.
A close above 52k and continuation, is a long for a swing to potentially the mid 60's where I am a seller
If you noticed selling pressure picked back up in the low 50's and we are now lingering around support. Many may think this is accumulation, but IMO if we do not bounce in the next day or two, it is a sign of weakness.
Bitcoin is also showing a proportional structure to the previous consolidation, not to the initial consolidation off the prior low, and proportionality does matter. Again unless we get that impulsive swing in the next couple days this is likely part of a broader correction.
I want to be clear, as it appears many do not understand I am never 100% out of the market, I simply like to take some risk off into highs. I have 65% of my initial position and those buying now are paying 8x's my average cost.
Yes the "I found Bitcoin as a savior" evangelist are coming out of the woodwork. The Michael Saylor's of the world found salvation, but honestly many of these guys only found it last year. Bitcoin to 100 trillion dollar market cap!!! Really?
Where were all these bulls at 5-10-15-20k? Sure there were many buying at these levels but with so many jumping in at the ATH and it is not going higher, it would seem like most would step back and ask why? But they are blinded by the light. Yeah you can see it with all the laser eyes popping up everywhere, this isn't focus its blinding!
With all the new ETF's, companies jumping on the bandwagon, huge purchases by MicroStrategy , Square and others, you would think Bitcoin would be pushing 80k not 44. Step back and think why is it not going higher with all these 1 billion dollar purchases, and if that does not throw up a red flag it should!
Now am I saying we see 15 or 20k Bitcoin in the next couple months? I think this is highly unlikely, but I do think it is reasonable to see the low 30's over the next month or so.
I closing many are going to have their first I bought the dip and it kept on dipping moment. Yes when everyone is posting laser eyes on their profile, getting ridiculous calls for more ridiculous market caps, and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon, yet price keeps on dipping it is a sign there are too many bulls, and markets do not like crowded trades.
Bullish in the long term, I need to emphasize this for those that quickly read over my articles and misunderstand the context. However in the short term, lower prices are a higher probability than most think.
In the end the market will determine who is right and who is wrong, but it is not about being right or wrong, it is about being diligent and sticking to a plan. We have a plan and I am not going to allow the FOMO to interfere with our long term goals.
Either way I stand to benefit from whatever the market decides. Market moves higher, so does the value of my portfolio, market moves lower, I have cash to buy. See most think that they need to be 100% in the market as it moves higher, but this is a sure sign of greed and we all know what results when the market is greedy!
Hey we all make that move at some point in our investment careers where we buy the dip and it keeps on dipping. Many are going to get their first experience of the pain that can result in buying the initial dip without any structure, or base of support. The key thing is did you learn from your mistake? Education is not cheap and the most expensive education you can get is in the equity markets!
Now dip buying is not all bad, it is how you buy the dip that counts! As I mentioned in my last article, if you are buying the dip, small nibbles, not big bites. However most have the Las Vegas mentality "ALL IN".