WyckoffMode

BTCUSD: Potential for $51,000 Next Weekly Candle

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi evertyone! We have potential for $51,034.91 the NEXT Weekly Candle "if" downward pressure persists in the Short Term Group of Time Frames. $51,000 would be rather close to the B-Band Basis in the Weekly. In case you did not know; the B-Band Basis is the 20-Moving Average. In the Weekly; we call this, "The 20-Week Moving Average." It is common to have a pullback to the 20-Week Moving Average during a Long Term Bull Trend. We did this a LOT in 2017 but less so during the bull run of early 2020, the latter part of 2020 and the early part of 2021. We have mostly found support at the White UPPER B-Band in the Weekly on Pullbacks as of late bull runs of 2020 and 2021 until we fall into brief periods of Re-Distribution and lose the B-Band Basis (20-Week Moving Average).

I personally believe the Composite Groups would intentially maintin support at the White UPPER B-Band during bull runs of 2020 and 2021 most of the time because they know many people familiar with the 20-Week Moving Average would assume that is where we would see a pullback to find support. Instead we would maintain the White Upper B-Band in the Weekly -OR- lose support of the 20-Week Moving Average to find support at the White Aqua LOWER B-Bands (By-passing the 20-Week Moving Average all together). This may be the one time we actually do find support at the 20-Week Moving Average (Yellow B-Band Basis) if the pice action continues to fall.

Keep in mind, the CURRENT Weekly Candle has NOT "closed" yet. We still have approximately 2.5 days remaining. It's also still possible for the White UPPER B-Band to maintain support in the Weekly; PROVIDING we begin to see Upward Pressure Races "win" (one after the other) in the Short Term Group of tiem frames and continue to win the race up into the Near Term Group of time frames. That's a big "if" at the moment. The Red RSI and Blue LSMA in the 8-hour time frame has a lot of work to do in order for that scenario to come to pass.

Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!

David
Comment:
Comment: UPDATE:

90-minute time frame:
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Comment: UDPATE:

Aqua Blue Text Bubble in this 3-Day time frame:
Comment: UPDATE:

If you need to use a translator for the Aqua Blue Text Bubble in the 3-Day Chart, here is the text to paste in a translator:

If we lose support at the 0.5 FIB and continue falling the remaining
time in the current 3-Day candle and part of the NEXT 3-Day candle,
we may find support around the 0.382 Horizontal FIB at $51,034.91
and the Yellow Diagonal 0.146 FIB around the White LOWER B-Band.
Comment: UPDATE:

If you need to use a translator for the Aqua Blue Text Bubble in the 90-minute time frame, I'm including that text below this 90-minute chart:


If we make it up to the White/Aqua UPPER B-Bands in this 90-minute
time frame, we may act as RESISTANCE unless the Blue LSMA can
get above Level 50.

If the Red RSI and Blue LSMA "both" manage to get above Level 50,
we have an opportunity for EXPANSION of the B-Bands. However,
in order for the White/Aqua UPPER B-Bands to act as SUPPORT
during EXPANSION of the B-Bands, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA
"both" need to get above Level 70 at a minimum.

In order for the White/Aqua UPPER B-Bands to "MAINTAIN" support
for a SUSTAINED period of time, we would need to see the Red RSI
and the Blue LSMA to "both" get above Level 80 in this 90-minute
time frame.
Comment: UPDATE:

It's possible for $55k to hold "IF" the Red RSI and Blue LSMA in the 8-hour can "both" get above Level 30. We need to get them above Level 20 first to stay within the White/Aqua LOWER B-Bands. If we want to go higher than the White Aqua LOWER B-Bands in the 8-hour, the Red RSI needs to get above Level 30. If we want to remain ABOVE the White Aqua LOWER B-Bands for a sustained period of time, we need BOTH the Red RSI the Blue LSMA to get above Level 30 for starters.

Comment: UPDATE:

4-hour ADAUSD; 4-Hour ADABTC; 4-hour BTCUSD:

8-hour ADAUSD; 8-hour ADABTC; 8-hour BTCUSD:

12-hour ADAUSD; 12-hour ADABTC; 12-hour BTCUSD:

24-hour ADAUSD; 24-hour ADABTC; 24-hour BTCUSD:

2-Day ADAUSD; 2-Day ADABTC; 2-Day BTCUSD:
Comment: UPDATE:

White/Aqua UPPER will act as RESISTANCE in similar fashion to September 29, 2021 "IF" the Blue LSMA cannot manage to get above Level 50.

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By the way, the chart recently posted above is the 2-hour time frame.
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Even if the Blue LSMA does manage to get above Level 50, be mindful of the Green EMA potentially turning back down in similar fashion to what we saw in the 2-hour on November 18, 2021. That's for you scalpers out there.

Comment: UPDATE:

We see our Blue LSMA in the 2-hour time frame has made it above Level 50. This increases the odds for us to see EXPANSION of the B-Bands and price action to go up with the B-Bands in the 2-hour. This also increases the odds for the price action to go above the Aqua UPPER B-Band in the 2-hour during this expansion. (2-hour in top right corner).

Now it's time to be mindful of the Blue LSMA in the 4-hour time frame. As it is in a similar situation to our Blue LSMA in the 2-hour earlier. We need the Blue LSMA to rise above Level 50 if we are to see expansion of the B-Bands in the 4-hour and price action go UP with expansion of the B-Bands. If the Blue LSMA in the 4-hour can not go Above Level 50, we can anticipate the White/Aqua UPPER B-Bands to act as RESISTANCE instead of support. (4-hour chart is bottom left of center).

Comment: UPDATE:

Previous update was in regard to the Short Term Group of time frames. This update is in regard to our Near Term Group of time frames:

Note how we lost SUPPORT of our White UPPER B-Band in the 4-Day and 5-Day time frames when the Red RSI fell below Level 80. (4-Day is bottom; left corner and 5-Day is Bottom; left of center).

We have a new 6-Day candle beginning in approximately 21 hours from now (Bitstamp Exchange Time). If the Red RSI in the 6-Day time frame falls below Level 80, we are subject to lose support of the White UPPER B-Band in the 6-Day time frame in similar fashion to how we lost support of the White UPPER B-Band in the 4-Day and 5-Day time frame. (6-Day time frame is bottom right of center).

If the Blue LSMA in the 4-Hour can manage to make it above Level 50 along with the Red RSI, we have potential for EXPANSION of the B-Bands and price action to go UP with expansion of the B-Bands in the 4-hour. Of course, we also need to see the Blue LSMA to rise above Level 50 in the 6-hour and 8-hour time frames if we are to see expansion of the B-Bands and price action going up with expansion to carry over into the 6-hour and 8-hour time frames. If the Blue LSMA can manage to go above Level 50 in the 6-hour and 8-hour time frames, we may manage to maintain support of the White UPPER B-Band in the Weekly time frame and avoid falling down to around the $51,000 price point mentioned in the video.


Comment: UPDATE:

Weekly time frame:

Comment: UPDATE:

Yellow Text Bubble in the Weekly time frame posted above:

If the Red RSI goes above Level 80; "then" comes back down to Level 80; one of two things will occur:

1. If price action closed above the White UPPER B-Band and began falling back toward the White UPPER B-Band, the price action has increased odds
of "LOSING SUPPORT" of the White UPPER B-Band once the Red RSI falls below Level 80.

2. If the price action never closed above the White UPPER B-Band, the Blue LSMA likely never made it above Level 80. Which means the White UPPER
B-Band was acting as RESISTANCE the entire time. The price action has increased odds of falling from the White UPPER B-Band when the Red RSI
falls below Level 80.

Blue Text Bubble in the Weekly time frame posted above:

The Blue LSMA acts as a gauge to determine if the Red RSI can hang out above Level 80 for a while; which means the White UPPER has increased odds
of acting as support for a while. If the Blue LSMA made it above Level 70, there is a good chance the price action closed above the White UPPER B-Band
and the White UPPER B-Band was acting as support until your Red RSI falls back down below Level 80.

Magenta Text Bubble in the Weekly Time Frame posted above for those who need a translator.

This Magenta Vertical Time Line "identifies" we do have
"occasions" in which this rule does not come to pass.

You can see our White UPPER B-Band "lost support"
here.

I pointed this out to show you this is a game of "odds"
(statistics). I would say, "Odds are rather high of this
rule playing out more often than not up until you get into
higher time frames than this Weekly.

How high of a time frame will vary depending on which
pair (asset, currency, crypto, commodity, etc...).
Comment: UPDATE:

Red Text Bubble for the Weekly time frame posted above if you need to use a translator:

Looking like our Red RSI will stay above Level 80 during the current Weekly candle; as anticipated. The title of
this publication was in regard to the NEXT Weekly Candle. We will continue to monitor time frames lower than
this Weekly time frame to make the determination if the Red RSI in the Weekly can manage to stay above Level 80
and avoid losing support of the White UPPER B-Band in the Weekly time frame during the NEXT Weekly candle.
Comment: UPDATE:

Cleaned up the Weekly chart a little by removing the Horizontal Fib Placement tool:
Comment: UPDATE:

If you are a new follower and wish to follow along with the indicators, I suggest you add the indicators I'm using to your charts. Follow the directions in the video below for setup:

Setting Up Indicators in Multi-Chart Window for Multiple Groups
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BTCUSD: IMPORTANT Clarification 12-hour and 24-hour Time Frames

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