There was a interesting pump yesterday from 9.3K due to how the 15m, 30m and 1H MACD performed a cross up at the same time, causing all the bots to buy in together. That bounce from 9.3k was expected to some degree but it really weren't expected to go that high. So now it is rather confusing whether wave 4 ended there and 5 started (assuming it was not an ABC climb).
I am still bearish due to the bearish divergence on the higher timeframe, and I really don't see the overall trend changing after yesterday's pump. So... that makes it a bull trap imo since neither 123 nor ABC appears to have completed and there are alot more rooms to go down. Also, once 8.7k breaks (which is very likely) there is pretty much no support all the way to 6.5k so... the impulse wave 12345 down for the bear market scenario is still valid. BTC needs to clear above $10800 to be considered bullish. But we are going to see to pullback now from the pump and see where this leads us exactly, similar to the Jan 20th pump.
If you are looking for a long, you might want to wait for it to break above $10800, then wait for a pullback to be supported before making an entry.
If you are looking for a short, a break of $10100 / reject from $10300 could serve as confirmation. If $9500 breaks, you can consider keeping the short open for a swing.
Well this short turn out a little too north, and the flag broke upwards. My limit orders were hit so now my short sits at $10535 and I will add one more if this goes to test $10800. (Potential peak for wave 2) Playing with fire maybe, not recommended for the faint heart.
From a bull perspective, this looks like a promising moon once we break above $10,800. Currently, price is sitting at the major downtrend line, peaking above and trying to confirm a support.
If we break above $10800... we can probably hit $11200 to complete sub wave 1 (Wave 5) Then a pullback for hm.. sub wave 2 to $10400. But if we fail to break $10800, then down sharp all the way hard to 8K (Wave 3 down)> That's the game plan in my mind.
Comment
⋅
That gamble paid off. Price peaked at $10890 and my short at $10800 was triggered, bringing me up to $10711. This is how I recovered when I screw up on a bad trade with pivot points =)
Tentative support is set at $10400 and $9800 since $10650 broke and we are strongly below the major downtrend line again. I won't be updating this idea anymore, but I hope you learnt the importance of confirmation and price targets.
If I feel a reversal is in place, I might create a new idea for long. But you should know me from the chat room. I'm still carrying a 2.5k BTC price tag.
So far this went up with strong momentum, looks like it ain't gonna go down and will continue its uptrend.
Expecting to see another idea from you with bull perspective. You know I am mostly bull biased. Ha ha
Looking for break of 10900.
avito1
⋅
Thanks for all the updates... Always look forward to them, I really admire your skills as an analyst and hope to get there, despite your sloppiness and being $50-$100 off on your targets recently... Still got lots of reading to do (and I am surprised as I have no idea how I managed to chart - sort of accurately BTCs movement up to 10.8k)... Been doing paper trading for since early january (as I have seen you suggest to many on the chatroom)... but I have promised myself with my first real earnings a tip for the pizza jar... and also I will try not to pester you too much with questions... will try to work out answers for myself.. thanks!
GramTooNoob
⋅
@avito1, the first earning is very important to a new trader. It serves as a confidence cushion against unwarranted losses going ahead, and protection of the initial capital. You can consider tipping after you have doubled your capital =) Its not that I don't want to answer questions btw, it is just that I too am confused and my charts are constantly updated. So is my position management as well. Generally, I only post the idea if it has a good probability of happening if it fulfills certain conditions. But if ppl ask for guidance on their chart, I cannot really say that they are wrong since they could be right thus I can only say, follow the guidelines.
FXKhaos
⋅
Thank you. Have been away from the PC for last couple of days. Very interesting analysis. Really not for the faint hearted. Lol.
severt
⋅
And a new pump came in 30 minutes ago.... Perhaps the booster wants to anticipate in the BTCP fork later today and will sell-off after?
Expecting to see another idea from you with bull perspective. You know I am mostly bull biased. Ha ha
Looking for break of 10900.