The wick of today's Bitcoin price candle has fallen significantly through the $610 level of the descending triangle. This is as expected given the weak volume.
At this point it will be important to see what happens should the price fall below the psychologically important $600 level.
Would expect some support between $540 to $560. Should those levels fail then some other support levels would be around $530, $500 and $460.
As you can see by looking at the indicators below the price chart, they have all declined. Premier Stochastic Oscillator has dipped below the zero line. BB Impulse reflects the stronger move down in price. MACD and the Vervoort Smoothed Oscillator are turning down.
Is should be an interesting day or two for Bitcoin as we wait and see how many people the drop in price will shake out. For now I am on the sidelines until I get a sense of how much further price will fall. Once I have a better sense of how low price might go I intend to be a buyer.
There we go. I'm glad I told you about the trend. People were trying a new uptrend three times against this downtrend. At some point they had to give up to the bears.
TerryKinder
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Well, I have been discussing the price trend for a while - mostly on a gold and silver community where I am one of the moderators (we also discuss digital currencies as well). The Point and Figure chart (using software rather than the P&F charting available here) has been pointing to an upside target of $900 for Bitcoin and valid downside targets of $380 (already met), $360, $260, and $140 for some time.
It has struck me as strange, and perhaps a bit too optimistic, that some have been saying the Bitcoin price was about to explode higher. I would not expect a significant move higher at least until the Bitcoin price breaks $680. The difficulty that Bitcoin has breaking through $650-$660, then holding around $550 indicated price weakness. Combined with the low volume, descending triangle pattern, etc. these things pointed to lower rather than higher prices.
Another thing I hear over and over is that the Bitcoin price is event driven - which, of course, you could say about all kinds of things. However, the $380 Bitcoin price target which has already been met was visible on the Bitcoin P&F chart before February of this year. So while the price drop may have been proximate to some event, the chart indicated it far in advance of any event.
I also find it odd that many comment that Bitcoin is in an uptrend. Sure, viewed from the recent $339.79 low Bitcoin has trended up. However, if you draw a price regression channel from the $1163 high then Bitcoin is in a descending price channel and has shown very little inclination to move to the top of the channel - another indicator of weakness rather than strength.
While it is difficult to tell which way the price will move, I believe using fairly simple tools - Point and Figure chart analysis, price regression channels, various triangles and other chart formations, along with various indicators you can get a good idea of price direction and momentum.