Up to this point the current 22 day candle action is identical to the April 03 - April 25 fractal. Similar candle sequence, identical duration, higher highs and low with a support (black) line that never broke. This suggests that Bitcoin is about to issue a bullish spike.
However, if that doesn't happen and certain conditions aren't met, BTC may be "in trouble". Where trouble, look for a lower healthy pull back on the 1W scale which should be a desirable long term buy opportunity for investors.
So which are these conditions?
First, the current 1D candle needs to reverse immediately. The April fractal never broke the supporting (black) line.
Second, the 1D MA40 needs to hold and support the uptrend. It has been doing so since February 17th.
Third, the RSI needs to recover from the currently neutral 48.000 mark. The April fractal recovered from a similar Lower Low sequence.
If the above conditions fail to be fulfilled, BTCUSD should pull back for the first time on the 1W chart since January/ February 2019 and seek support on the 1D MA200. That would be the perfect long term buy signal and an opportunity for those who missed the April - May rally to buy and those long term investors who methodically wish to add BTC on every respectable pull back.
Do you agree with the similarities between those fractals? Do you agree with those conditions and think that a potential 1W pull back will be harmful? Let me know in the comments section!
I truly belive this is what we are going through right now
TradingShot
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@Gold_Rush, Thanks for sharing GoldRush but I have to respectfully disagree. Based on Bitcoin's historical prabolic channel the bottom was priced just above 3k and we shouldn't be seeing those levels again.
Gold_Rush
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@TradingShot, I agree but I don't this is the bullrun yet capitulation down to the bottom trend line which would be roughly 4k 5k, then consolidation over a long period then the bull run IMO. thanks for checking it out tho I like to hear from people with different opinions no echo chambers this way lol
TradingShot
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@Gold_Rush, Me too. I respect thoughtful and well rounded opinions even if they are different than mine.
giltwenty
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Bearish engulfing LH on daily RSI divergence. Don't be fooled this was a bull trap. We are going down to lower supports :) for the long term buys.
TradingShot
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@giltwenty, If my conditions break, then the 1D MA200 has the lower support within 4500 - 5000. Wouldn't you agree?
giltwenty
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@TradingShot, Yeh it could gain support there. Wait for confirmation as a trader though. I think by the time it potentially gets down there the support would be more like 5900~ and the MA continues to move.
D4rkEnergY
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TradingShot
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@D4rkEnergY, Thanks for sharing D4 but next time I would appreciate a little explanation and possible (desirable) link to my analysis in order to support the argument of 'enriching the discussion' instead of blatantly copy paste the link to your profile on my comment section. We are supposed to engage each other in a useful discussion not just spam our charts.