Support in case of price drop: 45K, which is the most important support, because if the price breaks, it will reach its last upward support, which is the trend line, and if it breaks, 31200 is the next support, and when it reaches this support, the market is in a bearish situation, and this support is more of a price support than a limited time. And our next supports are 16,700 and 13,100, which is not right to talk about at this time!
This technical data is in case of a price drop and I am not sure about the drop!
Well i think we could kiss the 4-year cycle goodby if we get to 45K, a wick would still be ok, but 52K looks to me like the lowest, high time frame close, we can take and keep the run intact. Strangely we went up early from the halving, and still plenty of time left compared to our past history, i believe your other chart highlights that. What makes this run tricky is asking, could this be a pre-cycle before the bull run like we had in Jun. of 2019, then we had a mini bear market into the covid dump, but that started way before the halving, were much past the timing on this halving to compare that to a pre-cycle. The only chart that scares me is the USDT.D chart, we are on the bottom of the major trendline (moving inversely of BTC). If BTC breaks to new ATH, how does USDT.D react? do we just range sideways and up the trendline, or do we see that trendline since 2018 break? A break would be great for Crypto, but is it tell us we topped? Time like always will tell :)
my_sol
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@SammyCasket, I agree with your analysis and I also believe that it is unlikely that we will see a bull run for at least the next 4 years. The data from USDT.D and USDC.D also supports this view.
However, it is important to note that USDT.D has historically traded in a range during previous bull runs, rather than declining.
If we were to analyze the market solely based on technical indicators, then it is likely that one of the two scenarios you mentioned (52k or 45k) will play out. However, world events could have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. For example, if we were to see a major geopolitical event, such as World War III, then it is possible that the price of Bitcoin could drop to 13k.
Just today, Israel carried out a small-scale attack on Iran. This could be the start of a major war in the Middle East, which would undoubtedly have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin.