NEUTRAL 1D Renko Chart with CM_Trendbars, EMAs and a custom DMI
This is a 1D BTCUSD (BitFinex) chart using Renko Candlesticks along with a CM_Trendbars (add on), 4 EMAs (9,15,21,55) and a custom DMI - with a focus on the last month of price action.
Renko Candlesticks patterns come from Japan and Renko means ‘brick’. They are a cousin to the Heiken Ashi candlestick patterns, using weighted calculations of the OHLC (Open High Low Close) but without the time. So in simpler terms, they focus on price trend expressed in price blocks ($50 USD for BTC), rather than time and volume. As a result, Renko charts are great at reducing noise and allowing for only the strong trends to be clearly visible on the chart. Trend traders often use this chart style in conjunction with other charts styles and indicators, to clarify the strength and direction of a trend.
BTC hit a 2018 low on the 14th of December, ending a year long bear market that has shredded the market’s confidence (and wallets). The current bottom, which may or may not go lower in 2019, came ironically a week before Xmas. A gift of not, there are two ways to look at it. We then saw a weak bounce of around 3300 with a price trend that grew in strength as it broke through the 3600 S&R level. Two days later on the 20th of December, price had hit the next major S&R area of around 4100 and clearly got rejected. Since then we have seen three tests (rejections) of the same price level, on the 22nd, and 28th and now on the 2nd of January. Three tests in under two weeks demonstrates that there is clear indecision ATM in the market. It is worth noting that Christmas and New Year typically affects the market, as trader's go on holiday and take out money to spend. A clean bullish break could see prices quickly reach around 4450 area and increasing confidence that the market has bottomed out. A weak rejection and further sideways movement would strengthen the case for the bulls, and we could return to ATL of 3300 fairly quickly.
Looking at the CM Trendbars, which is an indicator added on top of the Renko candlesticks that 'colour's the bars depending on the strength of the price action, I read them as slightly bullish in the short term but clearly we need confluence from other indicators.
Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use EMA (Exponential MA), over the non-weighted (Simple MA) because it adds more significance to recent price action over older price action. This provides a more responsive indicator, telling me when a significant trend change is occurring earlier. I have for EMA, 4 based on the Fibonacci numbers; 9 (green), 15 (yellow), 21 (orange) and 55 (red) day time frames. And a 200 day MA (purple). The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish, for example when the green line is at the bottom, followed by the yellow, orange, red (and then purple) it is clearly bearish. Not that the 200 EMA is essentially for identifying long term trends, but I focus on the 9-55 period for trend trading, especially the 21-55 day for multiple week trades.
The last time price crossed the 200 EMA was on the 2nd of September and the 55 EMA on the 18th of October. So the market was expecting a price retrenchment in December. Whether this is just a retracement, before we see the downtrend continue, is not yet clear. What is clear is that we saw a bullish bounce since December 14th with the 9, 15, and 21 crossing over within a week. The 9 day then approached and briefly breached the 55 EMA before dropping below it again since the 25th of December. The MA have since continued to consolidate as we have seen price action tighten around the 4100 S&R levels. This types of MA consolidation is another indicator that the price direction and strength is undecided by the market.
The final indicator is a custom DMI, which is a suitable tool to add alongside the Renko chart and 5 MAs, as it measures the MA of a price change over a given period of time. It is therefore another great tool for identifying trends, and helps to build confidence about price action and trends. We are looking for divergence and convergence between these three lines:
- Green is the +DMI or +DI, represents bullish action
- Red is the -DMI or -DI, represent bearish action
- Yellow is the ADX, is an average of the above two and sums up the MA trend.
The ‘dominate’ DMI has been the -DMI since the start of November, reaching a strength peak of 94 on the 24th of November. Since then we have seen a sharp decline in the strength of the -DMI with a cross over of the ADX on 3rd of December. Although we saw the -DMI ‘dominate’ again a week later it crossed over at 49. In the last month the market’s indecision has been clearly demonstrated by six ‘dominate’ crossovers. At the same time all three lines continue to decline with the ADX now well below 25, at 16. When the market is moving sideways and below 25, it is risky to trend trade. On the flip side, the longer the market continues to consolidate in this range, the larger the price action will be once it breaks out (either up or down).
In combination, the above indicators tell me we have experienced significant bullish price action in December and now the market is consolidating and moving sideways at the 4100 level, below the 55 MA, and with a declining ADX. In the current market, trend trading is unattractive, so I have to wait for a clear breakout either on the up or downside. I am inclined to remain a little bearish ATM and believe we could see price move back down again to the low 3000s range if the bulls are unable to gain more momentum soon.
Renko Candlesticks patterns come from Japan and Renko means ‘brick’. They are a cousin to the Heiken Ashi candlestick patterns, using weighted calculations of the OHLC (Open High Low Close) but without the time. So in simpler terms, they focus on price trend expressed in price blocks ($50 USD for BTC), rather than time and volume. As a result, Renko charts are great at reducing noise and allowing for only the strong trends to be clearly visible on the chart. Trend traders often use this chart style in conjunction with other charts styles and indicators, to clarify the strength and direction of a trend.
BTC hit a 2018 low on the 14th of December, ending a year long bear market that has shredded the market’s confidence (and wallets). The current bottom, which may or may not go lower in 2019, came ironically a week before Xmas. A gift of not, there are two ways to look at it. We then saw a weak bounce of around 3300 with a price trend that grew in strength as it broke through the 3600 S&R level. Two days later on the 20th of December, price had hit the next major S&R area of around 4100 and clearly got rejected. Since then we have seen three tests (rejections) of the same price level, on the 22nd, and 28th and now on the 2nd of January. Three tests in under two weeks demonstrates that there is clear indecision ATM in the market. It is worth noting that Christmas and New Year typically affects the market, as trader's go on holiday and take out money to spend. A clean bullish break could see prices quickly reach around 4450 area and increasing confidence that the market has bottomed out. A weak rejection and further sideways movement would strengthen the case for the bulls, and we could return to ATL of 3300 fairly quickly.
Looking at the CM Trendbars, which is an indicator added on top of the Renko candlesticks that 'colour's the bars depending on the strength of the price action, I read them as slightly bullish in the short term but clearly we need confluence from other indicators.
Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use EMA (Exponential MA), over the non-weighted (Simple MA) because it adds more significance to recent price action over older price action. This provides a more responsive indicator, telling me when a significant trend change is occurring earlier. I have for EMA, 4 based on the Fibonacci numbers; 9 (green), 15 (yellow), 21 (orange) and 55 (red) day time frames. And a 200 day MA (purple). The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish, for example when the green line is at the bottom, followed by the yellow, orange, red (and then purple) it is clearly bearish. Not that the 200 EMA is essentially for identifying long term trends, but I focus on the 9-55 period for trend trading, especially the 21-55 day for multiple week trades.
The last time price crossed the 200 EMA was on the 2nd of September and the 55 EMA on the 18th of October. So the market was expecting a price retrenchment in December. Whether this is just a retracement, before we see the downtrend continue, is not yet clear. What is clear is that we saw a bullish bounce since December 14th with the 9, 15, and 21 crossing over within a week. The 9 day then approached and briefly breached the 55 EMA before dropping below it again since the 25th of December. The MA have since continued to consolidate as we have seen price action tighten around the 4100 S&R levels. This types of MA consolidation is another indicator that the price direction and strength is undecided by the market.
The final indicator is a custom DMI, which is a suitable tool to add alongside the Renko chart and 5 MAs, as it measures the MA of a price change over a given period of time. It is therefore another great tool for identifying trends, and helps to build confidence about price action and trends. We are looking for divergence and convergence between these three lines:
- Green is the +DMI or +DI, represents bullish action
- Red is the -DMI or -DI, represent bearish action
- Yellow is the ADX, is an average of the above two and sums up the MA trend.
The ‘dominate’ DMI has been the -DMI since the start of November, reaching a strength peak of 94 on the 24th of November. Since then we have seen a sharp decline in the strength of the -DMI with a cross over of the ADX on 3rd of December. Although we saw the -DMI ‘dominate’ again a week later it crossed over at 49. In the last month the market’s indecision has been clearly demonstrated by six ‘dominate’ crossovers. At the same time all three lines continue to decline with the ADX now well below 25, at 16. When the market is moving sideways and below 25, it is risky to trend trade. On the flip side, the longer the market continues to consolidate in this range, the larger the price action will be once it breaks out (either up or down).
In combination, the above indicators tell me we have experienced significant bullish price action in December and now the market is consolidating and moving sideways at the 4100 level, below the 55 MA, and with a declining ADX. In the current market, trend trading is unattractive, so I have to wait for a clear breakout either on the up or downside. I am inclined to remain a little bearish ATM and believe we could see price move back down again to the low 3000s range if the bulls are unable to gain more momentum soon.