Here’s an interesting view of the current daily BTC price action (left) compared against a 2-day perspective of the 2018 bear market bottom (centre) and a 3-day perspective of the 2015 bear market bottom (right). “Interesting” because there is a very similar narrative apparent when viewed in this way.
The common narrative for 2015 and 2018 is: A rally to the top of the channel, a drop below the midline, a rally to the top of the channel, a drop back to (and overshoot through in 2015) the midline to find it as support, then rally through the top of the channel with the 12MA (purple) and 20MA (brown) providing support into a rising market trend.
Now look at 2022 on the left. Does it not fit the same narrative?
I also note the similarities in the RSI and the MACD. Another similar feature is the 50MA turning upwards after entering the channel.
In fact, the only feature missing is a large green spike in the Volume (Circled) coincident with a burst over 70 on the RSI and a dramatic launch of price beyond the channel.
What do you think? Is this a case of apophenia (seeing patterns and relationships where they don't exist) or has the bottom of the bear market been printed?
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I'm not convinced by the way and am interested in opinions (other than recycling macro-economic stuff promoted in the media as reasons for anything).
Notably, perhaps, this is the longest period price has spent above the 1D 50MA since the start of the bear market in November 2021.
80% of all on-chain metrics bottomed out at or around 17.5k, every single metric will be at historic lows if BTC goes to 16-16.5k from here. Whether it goes there or not doesn't really matter now, this whole area is a buy zone long-term. US is already in a recession, Fed said they won't hike rates as aggressive and will watch the data, if inflation reading comes out even slightly better than expected (or if they manipulate it to look better :)) Fed will pivot in Sept.
Crypto-Swing
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@Mikanoshi completely agree actually. The issue that the onchain metrics reveal is the length of time spent in the bottoming period. That is another reason I find this comparison interesting. Time compression might be a thing 😀
Whether it goes there or not doesn't really matter now, this whole area is a buy zone long-term.
US is already in a recession, Fed said they won't hike rates as aggressive and will watch the data, if inflation reading comes out even slightly better than expected (or if they manipulate it to look better :)) Fed will pivot in Sept.