Bitcoin - Next short-term buying opportunity!
Since our last analysis
BTCUSD
0.32% continued to rally and reached 9,900 USD ten days ago. Obviously our cautious view came a bit early but the last 5-10% of any rally are always the most dangerous ones. At that stage everybody is getting very bullish and weak hands are finally buying while the underlying market moves further into an overbought setup and risk is increasing dramatically.
As Bitcoin 0.16% moved towards 10,000 USD many of the small highly speculative coins started to move as well. But the resistance at the round psychological number was obvious and it is no wonder that Bitcoin 0.16% did correct hard reaching 8,200 USD last Saturday. Today it has already retraced nearly one third of this recent pullback as an intraday high was reached at 8,825 USD. As usual the crypto markets are moving so fast that you can not even finish your written analysis before the situation might have changed significantly…
Overall the big question remains whether the strong recovery from the lows in early April around 6,500 USD is just a countertrend bounce within the larger downtrend or whether the crypto sector indeed has bottomed and we are in a new up-leg already. Recent price action is not helpful yet to answer this question.
Over the last four months Bitcoin 0.16% seems to be running into a large triangle. While on the upside the series of lower highs is still in place, on the downside bears were not able to push prices back towards the low at 6,000 USD from early February. Within the triangle the overall picture remains neutral
The recent peak at 9,990 USD reached not only the downtrend line but also failed just below the 200-MA (10,180 USD). The last pullback consequently brought Bitcoin 0.16% prices back to their 50-MA (8,277 USD). Here Bitcoin 0.16% was extremely oversold from a short-term perspective.
Today’s bounce off the 50-MA is therefore no surprise and could take Bitcoin 0.16% directly back towards the resistance zone around 9,200 USD. As well another attack towards the downtrend line around 9,500 USD is possible. If today´s bounce is a bull trap, the pullback could continue and would bring another buying opportunity between 7,700 and 8,200 USD. But with a new buy signal from the stochastic oscillator, rising prices are way more likely.
Should Bitcoin 0.16% indeed be able to break out of the triangle, the whole picture would strongly improve and targets at 12,000 USD and 14,000 USD would be activated. In that case, the whole crypto sector should strongly rally too and many alt coins will outperform Bitcoin 0.16% .
But it is still too early for such a very bullish scenario, because this triangle could also break to the downside. Then Bitcoin 0.16% prices around 5,000 USD and lower will become very likely. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks and maybe even months, the most likely outcome is a consolidation within the triangle....
BTCUSD
0.32% continued to rally and reached 9,900 USD ten days ago. Obviously our cautious view came a bit early but the last 5-10% of any rally are always the most dangerous ones. At that stage everybody is getting very bullish and weak hands are finally buying while the underlying market moves further into an overbought setup and risk is increasing dramatically. As Bitcoin 0.16% moved towards 10,000 USD many of the small highly speculative coins started to move as well. But the resistance at the round psychological number was obvious and it is no wonder that Bitcoin 0.16% did correct hard reaching 8,200 USD last Saturday. Today it has already retraced nearly one third of this recent pullback as an intraday high was reached at 8,825 USD. As usual the crypto markets are moving so fast that you can not even finish your written analysis before the situation might have changed significantly…
Overall the big question remains whether the strong recovery from the lows in early April around 6,500 USD is just a countertrend bounce within the larger downtrend or whether the crypto sector indeed has bottomed and we are in a new up-leg already. Recent price action is not helpful yet to answer this question.
Over the last four months Bitcoin 0.16% seems to be running into a large triangle. While on the upside the series of lower highs is still in place, on the downside bears were not able to push prices back towards the low at 6,000 USD from early February. Within the triangle the overall picture remains neutral
The recent peak at 9,990 USD reached not only the downtrend line but also failed just below the 200-MA (10,180 USD). The last pullback consequently brought Bitcoin 0.16% prices back to their 50-MA (8,277 USD). Here Bitcoin 0.16% was extremely oversold from a short-term perspective.
Today’s bounce off the 50-MA is therefore no surprise and could take Bitcoin 0.16% directly back towards the resistance zone around 9,200 USD. As well another attack towards the downtrend line around 9,500 USD is possible. If today´s bounce is a bull trap, the pullback could continue and would bring another buying opportunity between 7,700 and 8,200 USD. But with a new buy signal from the stochastic oscillator, rising prices are way more likely.
Should Bitcoin 0.16% indeed be able to break out of the triangle, the whole picture would strongly improve and targets at 12,000 USD and 14,000 USD would be activated. In that case, the whole crypto sector should strongly rally too and many alt coins will outperform Bitcoin 0.16% .
But it is still too early for such a very bullish scenario, because this triangle could also break to the downside. Then Bitcoin 0.16% prices around 5,000 USD and lower will become very likely. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks and maybe even months, the most likely outcome is a consolidation within the triangle....
