Bitcoin at this timeframe appears to have formed into a flat with a terminal impulse ( rising wedge ) for wave-c. We're now breaking down from that wedge and should see a complete retracement of wave-c in less than 50% of the time it took to form. This will confirm the terminal action for wave-c and confirm that we are heading down to the next major support around 10k. If 10k is unable to hold the next support for wave-E is 6k.
@Billion_Pips he uses extremes to get attention. But been using the tactic
Intuit
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@etcopo, 10k isn't really extreme, it's pretty high probability. 3k is the more extreme target, less likely than 10k but still seems pretty likely.
Satomotoc
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Not sure how we can go that low, or even make a lower low, seems not that many sellers left. Another luna scenario/ an outlier might cause such sell off
Intuit
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@Satomotoc, what are you basing that off of? 140k BTC is released this month from Mtgox, on top of that tons of BTC at risk of liquidation as we fall lower under 20k.
There are LOTS or sellers left, especially considering the macro enviornment.
Satomotoc
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@Intuit, PA. From what ive observed, 30k-34k was strong support(it held well despite the war, spike in oil, dire macro, etc while other markets were getting destroyed), it seems we only went this low due to black swan(luna) w/c then had a cascading effect. If something like that happened again, then sure a massive downturn is likely
By sellers, i specifically mean big ones that can move markets. But yeah, a previous ATH getting broken + didnt trigger strong bounce probably means its diff. this time
Intuit
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@Satomotoc, 140k BTC is almost twice as big as LUNA. Not to mention Saylor's 120k BTC is at risk of liquidation as we drop further under 20k. Not to mention Celsius's BTC, or Miner's BTC, or random speculator's BTC, or people selling because of a macro recession.
There is definitely no shortage of sellers or black swans.