Bitcoin Analysis - 1/17/19

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After watching the price action of Bitcoin the past few days I wanted to publish what I am watching, what I see. :)


This is the general setup I am watching play out.


Diving into the analysis;

After the failed attempt at a second higher high and seeing a fierce rejection at $4100 (the wick during the morning of January 8th.) there was a massive dump down to the $3500 level where we saw some rather crazy price action (PA) and shakeouts. Is this redistribution or a shakeout before the breakout? - My bias below!

If we look back in history at $3600 & $3500, they have acted as strong R/S levels. Which I have marked as upper and lower channels of prior R/S.

Down below, there is an untouched area of support at $3250, which I BELIEVE will be tested (but that is the average person' bias, so keeping that one in the back pocket).

If we are able to test the range high once more, I would argue that $4500-$5000 is in play, however if we are unable to get above 3720 prior high. $3250 seems more probable.


More data!


Something noteworthy;

GAPS FILLED on the BTCUSDLONGS chart, there are two below.

GAPS (Almost) filled on the short, the BIG ONE!! NOTE!! - Once this fills, will the shorts stack? Opening as we go to test lows? o.O ?


There was a moving average cross (MA50 x MA200) on the H4;

We saw a test of the 50, but not a break. Something to note!


A break of the 21EM (One of four EMA's I use on my chart; EMA Forecast) but has not touched / crossed the 55EMA;


There is honestly so much data I am analyzing at one point in time, trying to remain consistent with my TS , not overusing my tools & indicators. Keeping it simple... 'ish...

Also, excuse the absence from Twitter & Discord as I begin to test myself against this market. Something that is hard to do when you are constantly bombarded by ideas from people you respect (Love you guys though! YOU'RE PART OF MY MOTIVATION!)

I find myself seeking information a lot of the time when I am 'confused' - wanting to go to the people I trust and respect for help.

That is no way to learn, to progress. The bias I develop for myself is mine, and mine alone. Such a good feeling!

SO! I have simply cut myself off from the social media stuff even though I find myself on Twitch conversing with some friends... Challenging their bias vs mine is always fun.

Thanks for taking the time to read! I actually took some time on this one!

Let me know what you think! Cheers!

- J.L.
Comment: GAP UPDATE:

A few gaps that are noteworthy.

Shorts climbing after opening a decent size gap ~ 600,000 contracts (is it really that big though? :P)

Comment: Updating new data I see, this time a nice spike of shorts that were opened ~ 7.5mil contracts which aided this dump


This channel may hold, however unlikely.


A bounce to $3600 followed by a move to test these lows is looking ideal. Lows tested 'nonetheless?'

. . . there are no guarantees in this space, only space cowboys with massive 'cohones.

Cheers, fellas.

This zone did play into a bounce, is it enough for a follow up?

Comment: Break of volume, however something looks off about this one.

When I say "off" - more specifically divergence. This break in volume on 'mex paired with a lot of longs closing and a lot of shorts opening, with many gaps on smaller time frames. To me, that suggests the whales are creating liquidity on 'mex while having the curtain pulled over what is really happening.

Will we see a price drop before the Chinese new year? Key word; "Lunar"


Comment: Small update:

Because BTC was being bought up at these (marked) price levels, showing the huge volume candles gave a little push up to the golden pocket area from the previous dump we had.

This is simply my interpretation of what happened (explained in the chart) and what I believe the future holds for us IF the 3400 level is broken upon testing these lows.

Again, price has been bought up so stay nimble on this one!


Comment: UPDATE (My thoughts);

3400 was broken, but no close under. Defended, but is there really interest at this price with a double bottom so near?

Buyers defending this range but the daily close was not bullish, but not by any means... so a lot of scenarios are in play. I see this from the wicks that touched 3350~ as well as a HL (Higher Low).

The scenarios I predetermined have not changed.

Looking forward to the next daily close as this month comes to an end. NOTE THE MONTHLY CHART.


Comment: UPDATE as the month comes to a close;

Having met a lot of resistance as we neared 3500, Bitcoin takes out 30 hours of up-trending price action and looking to close below this R/S support level. (~3400).

- Chinese new year on the 5th of February.
- Monthly Close
- Moving Averages & Exponential Moving Averages (check the larger time frames).


Comment: Range was defended, followed by a higher low. Led to a nice bounce.

Specifics labeled on the chart, this could really go either way...

No real bias however I did close my long position from $3358.8 and opened a short position at $3446.0.

Tread safe friends!

Here is the chart update;

GAP Update;
Comment: There's the volume ! WOW !

Watching this play out, I did enter a short position off this bounce.


Interesting enough... it looks like both the bulls and the bears packed up shop on that move. (hella closings on both sides) - that tells me we go sideways or down from here... but I did NOT expect that move. I did catch it though :D !

Cheers fellas!
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