AussieCrypto1
Short

Bitcoin 3 hr thoughts

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The TD 9 only corrected on itself on the 4hr chart (9 candle went down) and I've noticed the 4hr TD count hasn't been very significant/helpful recently. I have found the 3 hour chart to be more helpful over the last few weeks when it comes to the TD sequential indicator so I want to share my thoughts here.

We have been working on this symmetrical triangle and the price could go either way in my opinion. I do have a target of $1500 to either side though with a possible rebound at 5k-5100 to the downside and an upside target of $8600.

At the very least I expect a 1-4 candle pull back soon when a 9 shows up in 2 candles time (3 to 12hrs downside). If Bitcoin shows strength and rallies up to 7150/7200 with no significant pull back, I will jump back in on the long trade with a stop loss around 6800.

Reasons for long: I honestly don't have a lot for the short term and you'll see why in my 'reasons for short'.
* The 50 week moving average seems to be holding up the price well
*Bitcoin is getting close to being unprofitable to mine and I would speculate that some of the huge companies now involved would try to pump up the price if it became unprofitable. Bitmain declared more profit than Nvidia last financial year so I'm fairly confident there is enough money out there to keep it profitable to mine and I will start buying like a mad man around 5k.

Reasons for short:
*We have been trading under the 200day ma for an extended period. The last time this happened we had a 15 month bear market.
* We had a death cross recently (50 day dipped below the 200 day ma)
* We have had too many opportunities to buy within 10% of the swing low (6500-6600 range) and Bitcoin usually doesn't give you this much time to buy that close to the bottom.
* I have seen some massive shorts over the last week in the order books which makes me suspicious that the Mt Gox trustee is back to selling (up to 5k bitcoin at a time).
* At 5k Bitcoin is still up %500 in a 12month period so it is more possible than people realize.
* If the 50 week moving average is broken, the last time this happened there was a about 12 months of trading below it... Not a good sign..

I'm short right now but long term I'm still bullish for BTC so I'm ready to move with the market and change my position as needed.
Comment: "At the very least I expect a 1-4 candle pull back soon when a 9 shows up in 2 candles time (3 to 12hrs downside)"
**correction to above** At the time of typing my comments before publishing we we're still trading on a 7 but at the time I posted the chart, the next candle (8) was being formed so if anyone was confused there, this is why i said in 2 candles time.

Update:
Looks like the 9 has played well on the 3hr chart again. I have already taken some profit here and will keep a close eye on this movement. You can see through the recent history, the 9's quite often give a very short 1-4 candle correction (including itself) or a significant correction down. The reason I took profits here is because we got close to the bottom of the triangle and support started to come in. I still hold a small short position and I will increase this if I see it drop into and below 6650.

I suspect the next 24 - 36hrs are going to be very interesting here and I will be keeping a very close eye on it as we reach the tip of this triangle.

Good luck trading.
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