I just posten a higher time frame on Bitcoin, a follow on the one i did almost 2 months ago. This analysis is still slightly neutral, but because this 8500/10.000 consolidation is taking a lot of time and curving down slightly, it looks as if a drop (correction) is a likely outcome for the coming week or 2.
What i can say is, that thick blue line on the left is most probably THE key thing to watch for the coming week. As long as that one stays intact, the past 5 weeks could simply just be an accumulation (bullish) wedge.
On the left we can see the numbers 1,2,3, those are the price jumps after the drop. It's clear to see those bounces have become smaller as they progressed. Now this is of course normal in a wedge, the range becomes smaller as time passes, but the third one wasn't able to touch the high of that wedge. This doesn't say it all, but i would favor it more as a sign of weakness then of strength.
Another thing that is in favor of the bears, is that chart i posted a few days ago in my public channel. Where i compared those 2 correctional moves, the one from half year ago and the one from past week. So far, it has been playing out quite identical, especially because of that wick we had yesterday and where it already came back all the way down.
In this chart, we can see then price kept moving in a tight range only to see it drop about 10% eventually, where it did that big bear trap which was the low before pumping to 10.500.
I think as long as we don't see a break of 8600ish, this can all still be a consolidation and Bitcoin could still pump. But think if we see a daily close below that thick blue line as described above, it will ber very likely to see 7500. The consolidation is very big, which usually means the breakout move will be big. So that should mean for the downside as well. So, in case we see a drop to only like 7500 (maybe a bit lower) but see price simply hold there for a while, then i think bulls could start to become VERY bullish even. I will explain why i think that:
Just said, the breakout move should be very big, so if we see a drop to like only 7500ish, it would be a sign that a lot of buyers are stepping in who stop the potential big drop. That to me would be a very big sign of strength. But can't say it upfront, we need to judge it when things happen.
On the left, we can see a blue line, this shows what bulls have to prevent. Which means, seeing a drop coming days to 8750/8950, but crawling on that blue support line without being able to make a big bounce. If that happens, there is a very big chance we get a big straight line dump coming week. That would mean the wedge was not accumulation but distribution.
Short term, the left chart shows what looks like a bear flag. So as long as we move below 9100ish, bears are in favor. 9200 got rejected yesterday and 9300/50 is the important level i mentioned several times past days. So the 9300 will be a big level and could shift the favor from bear to bull. 9700ish is also still THE level i think for this big consolidation to end in favor of the bulls.
So as long as we move below 9100ish, bears are in favor. If we do drop, bulls need a good bounce of like 300 points, small bounces below 200 points remain weak and price could still dump eventually. I would say, keep an eye out for alts, during past highs and lows, we sometimes got free info upfront because those became suddenly very weak compared to Bitcoin, so those can give a possible heads-up
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Previous analysis:
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It seems as if the stock market saved the day again for Bitcoin. The futures opened higher and kept on pumping since dragging Bitcoin along with it. Both are at resistance zones now, so could just as easily turn around again.
When looking at Bitcoin, it looks more bullish at the moment. As i described above, Bulls need to bounce up from the thick blue line of the chart above, well so far that is what happened. Also looks like a double bottom as well as you can see in the chart here below.
The only task the bulls now have is, keeping it inside that small bull flag zone on the right. Think a max of around 9160/200. If so, good chance we see a break of that 9300/350 zone today or tomorrow.
Also still important to see a touch of that resistance line, which they failed to do a few days ago (as described above) and which is around 9400/450. Then also important to see, if the wedge breaks, to see some volume increase as well. Ideally bulls see it pump to the 9700 zone and then consolidate close to that resistance. If so, good chance we might get bullish movement coming weeks.
First job is still breaking the 9300/350 though, i mean it does look like it will happen, but we have seen so many good looking bull and bear setups fail over and over again (which is somewhat normal in a consolidation). So i would not just sit back and relax.
Just hope we get a breakout this week to either direction, this wedge now says it should happen soon, up or down
"Just said, the breakout move should be very big, so if we see a drop to like only 7500ish, it would be a sign that a lot of buyers are stepping in who stop the potential big drop . That to me would be a very big sign of strength. But can't say it upfront, we need to judge it when things happen."
What happens if BTC falls to $3500? What would it signal then; strength or weakness? Remember we have the 2nd virus wave coming that will drop the stock market back down and BTC along with it. The stores that have reopened will have to close again.
botje11
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@BDG that is only a scenario, a what if, that would then be my read on it. About stock market, been telling everyone for months, corona is being underestimated, but it’s not like stock market gives a F. So yes, still a very likely scenario to see if drop very big
Phi-Deltalytics
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@BDG, We are still bullish for the long-term, and doubt we would drop below 7k. 2nd virus wave could definitely come, but it might have a much smaller impact on the market compared to the first one.
sarenareth
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When alts suddenly become very weak, do I interpret that as a sign that BTC will drop? or that ppl are switching over from alts to BTC because BTC is gonna rise? :)
botje11
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@sarenareth, It's never black or white, but more often, when alts all of a sudden get very weak and start to drop a lot compared to the past weeks (relative to Bitcoin), than it's a big chance Bitcoin might follow. We had that a year ago, when we dropped from the 10K to 8K. I wrote about it upfront as well then
MarxBabu
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It is so hard to find it is Long or Short
Can you please add that in your post please,in my view i am seeing this as long
MachiavelliTrader
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f-73
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Falling wedge, support, lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, FIB 0.5.
Yes, overall price looks weak, but so far bears haven't got the upper hand here. Not yet at aleast.
Not obvious outcome imho.
We'll see.
PolarHusk
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thanks for this quick update
majormajor
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Ayyyyy, everyone waiting for that consolidation to just end. Starting to get really interesting for some option plays like straddle or strangle as implied volatility also went down. What do you think? I might not be able to resist putting some on :)
What happens if BTC falls to $3500? What would it signal then; strength or weakness? Remember we have the 2nd virus wave coming that will drop the stock market back down and BTC along with it. The stores that have reopened will have to close again.