Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to flash one of the strongest cyclical bull signals it can give as the 1M (monthly) RSI is attempting to break and close above the 62.50 level. What's so important about it? Every time that level broke with the price deep into the Bull Cycle, BTC started its most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally that ended on the Cycle's new (All Time) High.
Last time that happened was in October 2020 and the Cycle before in June 2016. Common characteristic on both occasions is that the price was above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous High. On this Cycle, Bitcoin has already broken (and closed) above it since December 2023. As a result, once this pre-Halving consolidation is over, we can expect the new Parabolic Rally to start.
In addition to the 1M RSI, the Vortex Indicator (VI) has diverged to its fullest last month after a Bullish Cross. Going back again to the previous two Cycles, symmetrically we are still at a level where BTC has established a Low/ Support and can only rise from here (exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash which set the market back for a few months. Also if it wasn't for the early 2019 Libra euphoria, the VI would have made the Bullish Cross at a later stage). As a result, comparing it with 2016 is more accurate.
But what do you think? Is this potential RSI break-out, the strongest bullish signal we can get right now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Hell yes we agree with you. Anyone who thinks this is goin down past 40k has lost their minds. This is going to be one heck of a halving for all to remember. The market dynamics alone are powerful in the favor of this asset. Your continuous technical analysis consistently paint a clear picture of the future price action. TS, I appreciate you efforts for this community every time you share your work with us. The world needs more people like you,
TradingShot
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@Hellstorm2, A growing number of market participants believe that at the time of the Halving we can be closer to 60k. And that's the only negative I see in it, that the majority starts to think that way. Anyway thank you for the supportive comments Hellstorm, it is a pleasure to be able to share analysis here with the community.
CBKWahoo
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Lets see how the supply shock and the trillions threatening to enter through the means of ETFs affect the remainder of the cycle, we are only one year in so far with roughly 200% gains. Im going to take a shot and say it tops out anywhere from 350 to 420% before the music stops and the chair is pulled from everyones arses lol
@CBKWahoo, So you think the top will be around 75k?
CBKWahoo
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@TradingShot, I have a range in a triangle around 77k on the low side 122k mid and an all out fomo price around 168K on my main chart with key data and I have other charts that show similar ranges
Bitcoin_Weather
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From my point of view, the next ATH will not exceed 90K.
TradingShot
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@Bitcoin_Weather, Thanks for sharing your view with us, interesting approach.
arvine11
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at least 200-250K
TradingShot
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@arvine11, Who wouldnt want that, even though I believe 100 - 150k to be more fair for this Cycle.